A real estate analytic and forecasting firm is sticking by itspredictions for a significantly smaller mortgage and real estatemarket in 2011 over 2010.

iEmergent made its initial forecast in November 2010 and notedthat it has had a better record of predicting mortgage trends thanother “industry oracles.”

“If you're a cockeyed optimist, business-is-about-to-boomcheerleader, or a deficit hawk who believes the economy is on thecusp of rapid recovery and austerity is the now the operative word,when it comes to housing you're living in an alternate reality thatthe latest trends don't support,” the firm wrote in November.

It has not backed away from its prediction that the U.S.mortgage market for both new financing and refinancing will not hit$1 trillion this year.

“No one wants to hear about crippled communities and direhousing situations” the firm added. “We'd rather not forecast afloundering home financing depression, either. But we believe thatthose who trumpet a burgeoning housing recovery for 2011 aregrasping at very elusive straws,” it added then and has reiteratedrecently.

The West Des Moines, Iowa, firm predicted that U.S. mortgageoriginations, both refinance and new finance, will fall by justover a million loans, from just over 5.8 million in 2010 to justunder 4.8 million this year on the low end.

On the high side, loan volume may drop by over 1.2 millionloans, the firm said, from just over 6.5 million last year to justover 5.2 million this year.

Low-side dollar volume dropped to almost $904 million comparedto almost $1.1 trillion last year and high-side dollar volumedropped to almost $991 million, compared to almost $1.2 trillion in2010.

Of particular note to CUs, the biggest hit the firm expects themortgage market to take is to refinancing of existing loans.