Here are some of CUNA's other key forecasts:

Assets. Last year they grew 6.2% to $1.47 trillion, and CUNA expects them to grow 6.2% this year, down from its previous 7.75% forecast. Assets are forecast to grow 6.7% in 2020.
Savings. Last year savings grew 5.2%. CUNA expects 6% growth this year (down from its earlier 7% forecast), and 6.5% growth in 2020. "An increasingly competitive environment, tightened spreads between deposit rates and loan yields, make it challenging to increase rates sufficiently to attract more deposits," Salem said.
Loans. Last year loans grew 9.9% to $1.06 trillion. CUNA is paring back its 2019 loan growth forecast to 7.75%, down from its previous 8% forecast, reflecting the slowing economy, especially in automobile sales. In 2020, CUNA expects loans to grow 7%. "This is still a healthy rate, and higher than the average loan growth rate of 7.5% since 1990," she said.
Loan performance. Delinquency rates are expected to rise from 0.71% at the end of 2018 to 0.80% by the end of this year (up from a previous forecast of 0.75%). Next year delinquencies are expected to 0.85%. The net charge-off rate is expected to rise from 0.57% last year to 0.60% this year (down from a previous 6.5% forecast), and to 6.5% in 2020.
ROA. Return on average assets is expected to fall from 0.92% in 2018 to 0.80% this year. The 2019 forecast was reduced 5 basis points because of slower loan growth. Both forecasts reflect the absence of 2018's one-time gain from NCUA insurance fund rebates that added about 5 basis points to ROA.

"In a low inflation world, 80 basis points is a healthy level," Salem said.

Instant Insights /

CUNA Downgrades Economic Expectations for 2019

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