Well, baseball season is here, America’s favorite past time, and the season is unpredictable as ever. My San Francisco Giants won the World Series for the first time in my life a couple years ago, and we missed the playoffs by a few games last year, and we started the season this year with the first three games resulting in losses. Not to be cliché, but past performance cannot predict future results.

However, if you’re in finance, you have very little to go on these days. Ben Bernanke has promised us low rates until late 2014, which is the equivalent of betting on the Dodgers to win the whole thing this year (yea, right!). Economists are looking very close at Ben these days, looking for any clue of what the next pitch is going to be, a curve or a fastball, or the dreaded pitchout. The NCUA has recommended that we shock our balance sheets at 400 and 500 basis points because the rates are so low. Four years ago we thought 300 basis points were too much!

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