Chart showing MBA's forecast for a recession has shifted to a brief downturn in the middle of the year.

Ignoring a potential U.S. default on its debts and other dangers, the economy continues to supply occasional pleasant surprises.

Take the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest forecast, which still shows two back-to-back quarters of decline in gross domestic product. While the MBA told CU Times Tuesday it is “still predicting a mild to moderate recession for later in 2023,” the numbers it forecast might barely qualify.

On top of that, Tuesday’s Census Bureau report on new home sales beat the MBA’s forecast, and showed a continuing improvement since last fall.

Jim DuPlessis

A journalist for decades.

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