Bar graph reflecting the MBA's decision to cut the mortgage forecast for Q3 by 6%.

Expectations of continuing high interest rates, signs of a weakening housing market and a “coin flip” chance of a recession led the Mortgage Bankers Association to cut its forecast for originations in the second half of this year, and, to a lesser extent, through all of next year.

The MBA’s July 18 economic and mortgage forecasts showed second-half purchase originations falling 7% and refinances falling 80% from a year earlier. Its June 10 forecast showed a 5% drop in purchases and 77% drop in refinances for the second half.

“The housing sector has been severely impacted by the spike in interest rates,” the MBA said in comments released Thursday. “In an already strained affordability environment, higher mortgage rates have reduced the pace of home sales, and now with the prospect of a weaker economy and an elevated risk of recession, potential home buyers have pulled back even more.”

Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to, part of your ALM digital membership.

Your access to unlimited content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Critical information including comprehensive product and service provider listings via the Marketplace Directory, CU Careers, resources from industry leaders, webcasts, and breaking news, analysis and more with our informative Newsletters.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and CU Times events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including and

Already have an account?

Jim DuPlessis

A journalist for decades.

More from this author

Dig Deeper


Credit Union Times

Join Credit Union Times

Don’t miss crucial strategic and tactical information necessary to run your institution and better serve your members. Join Credit Union Times now!

  • Free unlimited access to Credit Union Times' trusted and independent team of experts for extensive industry news, conference coverage, people features, statistical analysis, and regulation and technology updates.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and Credit Union Times events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including and

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join Credit Union Times

Copyright © 2023 ALM Global, LLC. All Rights Reserved.