Bar graph reflecting the MBA's decision to cut the mortgage forecast for Q3 by 6%.

Expectations of continuing high interest rates, signs of a weakening housing market and a "coin flip" chance of a recession led the Mortgage Bankers Association to cut its forecast for originations in the second half of this year, and, to a lesser extent, through all of next year.

The MBA's July 18 economic and mortgage forecasts showed second-half purchase originations falling 7% and refinances falling 80% from a year earlier. Its June 10 forecast showed a 5% drop in purchases and 77% drop in refinances for the second half.

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Jim DuPlessis

A journalist for decades.