Chart showing refinances are slowing

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest forecast shows the slide in originations continues to be milder than expected, but the trend is clearly downward into 2022.

MBA’s Aug. 18 forecast revised total originations for the third quarter upward by 4.5% to $862 billion. But the revised amount is still down 20% from a year earlier and down 18% from the second quarter.

MBA’s data shows originations peaked at $1.26 trillion in 2020’s fourth quarter, and have fallen each quarter since then. Its forecast shows that trend continuing through the first quarter of 2022 when it expects originations will reach a trough of $516 billion. It shows next year’s peak at $623 billion in the second quarter and falling to $602 billion in the fourth quarter, the end of its current quarterly forecast horizon.

Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to, part of your ALM digital membership.

Your access to unlimited content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Critical information including comprehensive product and service provider listings via the Marketplace Directory, CU Careers, resources from industry leaders, webcasts, and breaking news, analysis and more with our informative Newsletters.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and CU Times events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including and

Already have an account?


© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Jim DuPlessis

A journalist for decades.

More from this author

Dig Deeper


Credit Union Times

Join Credit Union Times

Don’t miss crucial strategic and tactical information necessary to run your institution and better serve your members. Join Credit Union Times now!

  • Free unlimited access to Credit Union Times' trusted and independent team of experts for extensive industry news, conference coverage, people features, statistical analysis, and regulation and technology updates.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and Credit Union Times events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including and

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join Credit Union Times

Copyright © 2024 ALM Global, LLC. All Rights Reserved.