Chart showing refinances are slowing

The Mortgage Bankers Association's latest forecast shows the slide in originations continues to be milder than expected, but the trend is clearly downward into 2022.

MBA's Aug. 18 forecast revised total originations for the third quarter upward by 4.5% to $862 billion. But the revised amount is still down 20% from a year earlier and down 18% from the second quarter.

MBA's data shows originations peaked at $1.26 trillion in 2020's fourth quarter, and have fallen each quarter since then. Its forecast shows that trend continuing through the first quarter of 2022 when it expects originations will reach a trough of $516 billion. It shows next year's peak at $623 billion in the second quarter and falling to $602 billion in the fourth quarter, the end of its current quarterly forecast horizon.

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Jim DuPlessis

A journalist for decades.