Chart showing the MBA raised its forecast for refinancing in the third quarter of 2021.

The Mortgage Bankers Association on Wednesday raised its forecast for originations this year with another big increase in its forecast for first-mortgage refinances and a slight decrease in its purchase forecast.

The MBA raised its forecast by 3.1% for total originations for the full 12 months of this year compared with its June 18 forecast. It now expects first mortgage originations to come in at $3.57 trillion in 2021, down 6.6% from 2020. It started the year expecting a 24% drop.

The biggest change in the forecasts has come from refinancing. The boom that started last year as interest rates fell to historic lows hasn’t lost as much force as expected despite slightly higher rates.

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Jim DuPlessis

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