Other highlights of the NABE survey include:

Federal budget deficit rising to $969 billion in fiscal 2019, up from $779 billion in fiscal 2018, and to $1.05 trillion in fiscal 2020.
Industrial production increasing 0.9% in 2019 and 2020, down from 4% growth in 2018.
Payrolls increasing a median 164,000 per month this year and 129,000 in 2020, down from an actual monthly average of 223,000 in 2018
Unemployment rate averaging 3.8% in 2018 and 3.7% in 2020 (The jobless rate fell to a record low 3.5% in September)
Consumer spending, as measured by real personal consumption expenditures (PCE), increasing 2.6% in 2019 and 2.3% in 2020, down from actual 3% growth in 2018
Corporate profits growing 1.7% in 2019, the same increase as in 2018, and 2.7% in 2020
Business investment increasing 2.9% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020, down from projections in June of 4.1% and 3.5%, respectively in the June survey
CPI to rising 1.8% in 2019 and 2.1% average in 2020, down from an actual 2.4% increase in 2018

Despite these expectations, the NABE survey gives low odds — just 7% — for a U.S. recession this year and almost even odds — 47% — of a recession starting before year-end 2020. The odds of recession increase to 69% by mid-2021.

Instant Insights /

Business Economists Grow More Bearish About U.S. Economy

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