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As the bond market’s yield curve flashes warning signs of a U.S. recession, some key economic indicators are offering more conflicting signals about the outlook.

Recent government and private data show weakness from housing to retail sales and consumer sentiment, prompting a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve and pushing rates traders to price in a good chance of an interest-rate cut this year. The more downbeat signs also have economists cutting estimates of fourth-quarter gross domestic product and projecting a weaker start to this year.

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