Heather Anderson Happy New Year!

I love January, when everyone is full of optimism and focused on self-improvement. It's the right environment for credit unions, which are a place for members to find an organization willing to give them a chance – or a second chance – to improve their financial position.

What will 2016 bring? Last year CU Times celebrated its 25^th anniversary, and part of our historical coverage included reprinting columns from 1990 written by Mike Welch, our founder and former publisher. Mike used to pen a prediction column each year, as did current Publisher/Editor-in-Chief Sarah Snell Cooke.

It's a tall order to “be like Mike” or be like Sarah. But it's a new year and I'm feeling optimistic and focused on self-improvement.

So, at the risk of failing miserably, I'd like to make the following predictions for the credit union community for 2016.

1. Warnings of an economic crash have been greatly exaggerated.

Perhaps you've read the headlines warning of a massive global economic collapse. Some countries experienced big drops in their stock markets to begin the year, but does that mean the sky is falling? Probably not.

It's true some economies have asset bubbles that are poised to pop. Don't they always? Economies don't grow consistently; the only consistency is a pattern of expansion and contraction. Predicting when each will occur keeps economists employed. Like meteorologists, they usually get it wrong.

I recall at the beginning of the Great Recession, some pundits were predicting we'd be living off the land by 2012, and the best Holiday gift one could hope for in the future was food. Like end-of-the-world predictions, it didn't happen.

Yes, some countries will experience hard times in 2016, but the U.S. isn't one of them. I predict our economy's performance this year will be best described as “meh.” We'll have a little bit of growth, but nothing spectacular; nor will we experience a big crash.

2. However, there is a crisis lurking among credit unions.

There may not be a macro-crisis on the horizon, but the share insurance fund could be rocked in 2016. Which asset bubble will take the hit? The obvious choice is taxi medallion loans. That ship has sailed and isn't returning to the dock. Ever.

On Jan. 4, General Motors announced it invested $500 million in Lyft, one of two growing taxi competitors. That didn't help medallion values, which are already on the ropes.

Credit unions can file all the federal lawsuits they want, but that won't help the values of more than $2.4 billion in medallion loans on their books. It's no corporate crisis, but it's likely the share insurance fund will take a big hit – I predict it will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars – and it will happen this year.

I also think the private student loan market is dangerous for credit unions, and those loans have yet to come back to haunt the industry. And, in the true nature of asset bubbles, there is probably something else lurking that isn't even on our radar yet that could emerge in 2016.

3. Debbie Matz will continue in her position as NCUA Chairman.

Matz' term on the NCUA board ended in April 2015. Many board members serve past their term's expiration, but usually leave before or shortly after they hit the one-year mark. Former Board Member Gigi Hyland left the NCUA board in October 2012 after her term expired in August 2011. After Carla Decker's failed bid, Vice Chairman Rick Metsger replaced her on the board in August 2013. His term expires in August 2017, presumably giving him just four years on the board instead of six. Former Chairman Mike Fryzel served approximately one year after his term expired, giving his replacement, Board Member Mark McWatters, only a five-year term.

Filling vacant seats on the NCUA board isn't a priority for the president, which is why board members tend to stick around. Politically speaking, President Obama should be motivated to replace Matz with another Democrat before the election, in case a Republican wins. However, I doubt it's on his to-do list, which would leave a two-person board if Matz left. Metsger is no shrinking violet, but McWatters is more aggressive and has more connections on Capitol Hill. Two votes could mean a lot of stalemates, but with Matz out of the picture, McWatters could negotiate with Metsger to repeal or at least weaken of some of Matz's initiatives. The chairman has put in too much work to let that happen.

Instant Insights /

3 Credit Union Predictions for 2016

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