Credit unions are well positioned as Republicans prepare to lead the next Congress.
That sounds kind of strange, doesn't it? To think that credit unions are better off with a Republican majority? Maybe not to CU Times readers, who are largely Republicans. But to the average American, credit unions do Democrat work.
The perceived juxtaposition is a sign of the times.
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Credit unions help people. And traditionally, Democrats have helped people. Ensuring that the poor and underserved have access to financial services – inclusion, if you will – that's a liberal value.
However, as Joe Biden once famously gaffed, this isn't the Democratic party of the 60s and 70s. These days, Democrats are as cozy with Wall Street billionaires, defense contractors and big pharma executives as Republicans are – in some cases, more so. The libertarian slant to the Republican party has alienated some of its traditional supporters and shifted its values a bit.
Republicans have never been supporters of big government, aside from the swelling of government payrolls post 9/11 to fight terrorism. Although the Tea Party had less of an influence on voters this year than it did in 2012, the anti-government, libertarian message is still present in the Republican party. That pro-main street, self-help, deregulation agenda will ultimately benefit credit unions.
For example, credit unions will like the GOP's anticipated efforts to clip the CFPB's wings. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), who is expected to be named chairman of the panel, was very vocal about his opposition to Dodd-Frank in 2010, and has been just as critical since of the agencies that are now implementing it. Shelby is also comfortable with the gavel – he chaired the committee from 2003 to 2007 – so he'll waste little time settling back into the role. Look for the committee to consider a watered-down version of whatever the Republican-dominated House passes.
Likewise, expect committee fireworks if such a bill is debated. CFPB creator Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) turns up to committee meetings prepared, engaged and ready to fight. That should make for some excellent media coverage. I know I'm looking forward to it.
There's no guarantee President Obama will sign any CFPB reform bill, but both liberals and conservatives have heard an earful from community institutions affected by Dodd-Frank, and the regulatory pendulum is poised to swing back toward deregulation, as it always does eventually. If Congress can effectively sell CFPB reform as good for main street, Obama may feel pressured to sign it to help Democrats in their 2016 campaigns.
I also expect the bungling CFPB to produce more tawdry headlines in the meantime, as the bureau continues to wrestle with discrimination accusations, mismanagement of its headquarters remodel and regulations that produce more unintended consequences than consumer benefits. Democrats won't want to be put into the position of defending bigots and enduring the resulting campaign ads two years from now.
GSE reform isn't as easy of a sell as it used to be, as Fannie and Freddie have drastically improved their financial positions and now, report net profits. However, Shelby supports some of the reforms favored by House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), who has made GSE reform a cornerstone issue. Couple that with a Nov. 6 report that Fannie Mae's profits dropped this year by 55% from last year, and the government's role in housing reform could potentially be reduced.
Even tax reform could be better for credit unions under a Republican-led Congress. The idea of any kind of tax reform makes credit unions nervous, because the credit union exemption could be swept into a bill, and assumed Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is already talking tax reform. Remember, it was the Obama Administration's blueprint for tax reform that considered eliminating the credit union exemption. Republican friends in Congress, who have stated on the record they would vote to protect the credit union tax exemption, could provide an important safety net for the industry.
Or not. Republicans are far cozier with community banks than credit unions. Democrats aren't much better, but community bank support that could benefit credit unions on the reg relief side could also doom them with taxation.
Of course, a Republican-led Congress could merely produce more hot air. But take note of history: The last time credit unions passed significant legislation was in 1998, when Republicans controlled both houses.
Heather Anderson is executive editor of CU Times. She can be reached at [email protected].
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