Forget that jobless claims were revised upward, even higher thaninitial projections. The New Year is a time for optimism. AsCalifornia CU League Economist Dwight Johnston wrote in hiscommentary in the Trust for Credit Unions e-newsletter, “This wasthe fifth year in a row of triple-digit gains on the first tradingday of the year.”

But while the stock market rallies, the economy does notnecessarily follow. In addition to the unemployment numbers, theconsumerconfidence index is depressed and home-refinance applications,accounting for 82% of total mortgage activity, have declined forthree consecutive weeks, according to the Mortgage BankersAssociation.

One bright spot appears to be the automobile market, whichTransUnion announced just before the holidays, is forecast forrecord-low delinquencies and increasing amounts borrowed. Accordingto the credit bureau, auto loan debt per borrower is expected toincrease from an estimated $13,689 at fourth-quarter 2012 to$14,133 at year-end 2013. Loan delinquencies in the categoryessentially are expected to hold steady from 0.36% at yearend 2012to 0.37% at year-end 2013.

In part there is great uncertainty as to whether and whenCongress will pass and the president will sign a long-term solutionto the fiscal cliff crisis. Every lender in credit unions knows youdon’t lend beyond a borrower’s ability to repay or the credit unionwill likely lose the money.

Why anyone would lend more to the U.S. is beyond me, but perhapsthe greater mystery is why the government continues to want to digdeeper into debt. Just one more reason we need more credit unionprofessionals and volunteers in government in addition tosupporting issues favorable to credit unions.

In line with congressional expectations and credit unions’desires, CUNA seems to have backed off business lending for now. Thetrade group’s priorities list has been reprioritized, placingdefending the credit union tax exemption at the top. Given thatCongress will be looking at tax reform in general and repealing thetax exemption has already been introduced–albeit“accidentally”–in legislation, this is a wise choice. Additionally,some large, high-profile credit unions made a lot of noise about expendingtoo much political capital on an issue that relatively few creditunions would take advantage of. Their dues dollars walked right out the door, just before the hopesof passing legislation to expand member business lending.

In an email addressed to the league presidents, CUNA board andgovernmental affairs committee that states that CUNA will pursuethe introduction of legislation to expand business lending,President/CEO Bill Cheney acknowledged, “Going forward, we have totake some lessons from the failure to raise the MBL cap, understandthe realities of the credit union vs. small bank influence inCongress, address those realities and build a system that willallow the passage of important pro-credit union legislation in thefuture."

Economic realities were happening in the business lending marketall around, taking down a number of larger credit unions, likeTexans and Telesis.The bankers were able to make hay out of it and even more of astink than credit unions. Miffed by the bankers’ opposition toexpanded business lending, CUNA was able to help stop the communitybankers from getting the TransactionAccount Guarantee extension in an effort to demonstrate itsreciprocal might.

We saw NAFCU turn the corner toward the tax exemption last fall withthe study it commissioned and release during its CongressionalCaucus that found that eliminating the credit union tax exemptionwould cost the federal government $15 billion in lost tax revenue,$148 billion in GDP and 1.5 million lost jobs over the next decade.A more unified front would have helped the chances for businesslending, but it still appeared a long shot due to the bankers’opposition and lack of consensus among credit unions.

Still CUNA saw what it thought was a solid opportunity and tookit. The trade group can’t be faulted for that. What is at issue iswhether it, or NAFCU for that matter, was following a false mandatein pursuing business lending. Member business lending elicits amixed bag of emotions and responses from credit unions, but it isstill on the list of advocacy priorities, though below a handful ofothers.

Reducing regulatory burden should shoot to the top, but it’s notvery sexy and is almost certainly an uphill battle with theDemocrat-controlled Senate and White House, both of which favor theConsumer Financial Protection Bureau, a leading cause of creditunion hand-wringing over what’s to come.

Housing finance reform is another solid priority as well assupplemental capital, which seemed to take a significant back seatto business lending in 2012. Last year saw the expansion ofThe Coalition for Credit Union Access, launchedspecifically to supplement the supplemental capital effort becausethe trades were preoccupied with MBLs.

The New Year is a time of goal setting. Everywhere people arepromising to quit smoking or lose weight or take up a new hobby.All of these resolutions are aligned with most human beings’ innatewill to live–depending upon the hobby.

What is necessary in 2013 to feed your credit union’s stamina? Isuggest political activity, no matter which side of the issuesyou’re on. Just make sure the stances align with your creditunion’s future positioning so that it is something you’re trulywilling to get behind.