Come 2030, credit unions will be in business serving up some kind of financial services, essentially one generation removed from today. However, getting there will be as wrenching—as full of dislocations and pains—as was the shift from 1950s-style credit unions with no share drafts into today's full-service financial supermarkets.

But experts are on hand with tips for mapping a path to tomorrow.

At the starting gate, Birmingham, Ala.-based credit union consultant and onetime NCUA chairman Dennis Dollar threw out a chilling prediction about the number of credit unions left standing a generation from now. “The merger trend in credit unions will definitely continue and significantly accelerate over the next five years,” he said, “probably settling into the range of 5,000 credit unions by 2020. That will be followed by a period of assimilation and, from that point forward, a much more strategic approach to mergers. By 2030, there will likely be about 4,000 credit unions. However, I am convinced that they will be stronger financially and much better positioned to impact their communities with wider fields of membership, enhanced capital options and a reputation as the most influential community-owned financial institutions.”

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