Tightly managed membership rolls coupled with low deposit rates could be driving factors behind low membership growth over the long term.
The forecast comes from CUNA Mutual Group's April Credit Union Trends Report. As expected, semi-annual benchmark data revisions significantly reduced membership growth estimates, the data showed. The original two million member net gain was revised down by 732,000, according to CUNA Mutual Chief Economist Dave Colby. The revisions were consistent with traditional seasonal growth patterns, he added.
At 92 million, CUs generated a net increase of 1.3 million members in 2009. Through the first two months of 2010, total membership was up 230,000 to 92.3 million. This reflected a 1.1 million year-over-year net increase.
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"Looking forward, we see annual gains averaging slightly more than one million over the next couple of years. This translates into annual gains of 20 to 25% below the 10-year average," Colby noted. Low deposit rates, "less need for safe haven," and tightly managed membership rolls are the driving factors behind CUNA Mutual's outlook for below long-term trend membership growth, he pointed out.
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