By the fourth quarter, commercial mortgage defaults from bankscould soar past levels not seen in nearly 20 years, according tothe FDIC.

Scant refinancing will drive the default rate, which isprojected to be at 4.1% by the end of year. Real EstateEconometrics, a property tracking research firm, said theprojection is tied to nearly $44.3 billion of commercial mortgagesbased on the $1.08 trillion of the loans held by banks in theUnited States.

According to the FDIC, commercial defaults climbed 2.3% in thefirst quarter or to $3 billion from 1.6% in 2008 for the sameperiod.

As five-year loans originated in 2005 and beyond come due, thedefault trend is set to continue in 2010 and in 2011. A peak is setto come in 2011 before the start of a decline in commercialmortgage defaults, Real Estate Econometrics data showed.