MADISON, Wis. — The forecast for membership growth this year has mixed signals.
According to CUNA Mutual Group Chief Economist Dave Colby, "a flight to local, insured institution safety will be offset by tight expense management, as spreads continue to narrow" he wrote in the Credit Union Trends Report, which examined data through November 2008 and was released today. The purging of inactive and low balance accounts will continue to figure into credit unions' expense cuts.
"Looking forward we see mixed signals," Colby wrote.
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Still, the industry experienced unprecedented levels of annual membership growth in 2008 as total membership is estimated to have reached 92.3 million in November, Colby noted. The last time credit unions saw annual growth at these levels was 1988, he added. The 3.1 million member gain over the past year is almost twice the average gain posted over the past ten years. Credit unions should see at least a net increase of a million members in 2009, Colby said.
"We continue to believe current estimates are overstating actual results and will be revised lower when final year-end 2008 results are reported by the NCUA," Colby said. "We see a 1.2 to 1.5 million member gain as more likely than the current trend of over three million."
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