Election season is always filled with predictions and erratic polls. A month ago, Barack Obama was crushing John McCain in the polls; many more recent polls put the race within the margin of error with Obama still up.

Whoever wins the election will have dubious honor of trying to mop up the economic mess, which will have a significant impact on the future of credit union operations. The laws the next president signs off on and the influence he possesses will impact how mortgages gone bad will be handled, what new businesses or industries will or will not be bailed out, the shape of the secondary markets and other aspects of credit unions' business.

Each election is billed the most important yet. The phrase is so overused, not to mention trite to begin with, it has lost all perspective and meaning.

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However, this election cycle could be the exception; it might be the most important, at least in decades. The U.S. and global economy are being run through the ringer and a second Great Depression could be rushing our way.

Credit unions thrived during the 1930s as a safe haven, but the country and the world is a very different place today. Similar to then, consumers are significantly slowing spending, there's been overinvestment. In contrast though, savings have been in the negatives since the solid economic times in 2005, when it reached negative 0.4%, and in 2006, when it fell to negative 1.0%, according to www.msnbc.msn.com. The only two other years when it had been negative before then were 1932 and 1933.

One must be cautious in comparing these oft-reported figures however as they include retirees, of which we have many more in the 21st century thanks to modern medicine, who are taking money out of 401(k)s, which didn't even exist in the 1930s.

Additionally, part of the reason credit unions were so successful before and during the Depression was because those of modest means had nowhere else safe to go; the banks weren't interested in their business. Banks now aggressively seek these consumers, offering high-interest CDs on relatively small deposits and, in the recent past, making mortgages to practically anyone who walked in the door.

And, now there is deposit insurance coverage, so even if a bank goes under, depositors' funds are protected.

Finally, credit was much harder to come by 80 years ago and even more recently than that. My parents, like a broken record, still tell me how the only credit they could get when they first got married in 1972 was a $200 Sears card. As soon as my much-younger sister graduated high school in 2005, she got more credit card offers than her very high GPA earned her college offers.

A Forbes article cited CardTrak.com data showing credit card debt averaging $6,600 for the average American household as of 2007–unheard of in the 1930s. And that is on top of car loans and mortgages and student loans that have since developed.

My point is this: Credit unions generally did all the right things to avoid direct blows from the current financial crisis, but the indirect hits could be staggering as well. Unfortunately, credit unions will just have to be prepared for the unpredictable as we navigate a market like none that that has ever come before.

In my Oct. 15 column, I said: If credit unions take advantage of the [federal government's bad-asset purchase] program, they will no longer be able to make the claim that they've never cost taxpayers a dime…[I]t calls into question their tax-exempt status…If credit unions use this opportunity, they should consider more than just the dollars and cents of it.

I stand by that. While the offering of government funds, especially when others are taking advantage, might be tempting, the loss of the tax exemption would be the end of credit unions. They might as well become do-gooder banks with all the business lending, capital and investment authorities and shedding field of membership restrictions.

The industry is proud of the credit union difference. Maintain the one piece that keeps credit union hands out of the government's pockets for the long-term good of your members and the credit union movement.

On a personal note, in a column about politics and credit unions, I would be remiss not to touch upon the dreadful turn of events surrounding the death of former Credit Union Times reporter Carol Anne Burger. The circumstances were as unbelievable as they were tragic. Carol Anne possessed a fiery personality and fiercely stood up for what she believed in. She is gone, but for those of us who knew her, she will never be forgotten.

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