NASHVILLE, Tenn. — "It's going to be a bad year for John McCain," Gus Faucher told attendees at ACUMA's Spring Conference here at Gaylord's Opryland Resort. Faucher is director of macroeconomics for Moody's Economy.com and presented an analysis of the economy, housing issues and prospects for surviving what he said would be a "short and mild" recession.
But Moody's also has a predictive model for elections, he said, and for the upcoming presidential election, it shows that the Democratic Party will win the White House in 2008 by winning 29 states and gaining 400 electoral votes. "Virginia will go democratic this year and even Texas could go Democratic," Faucher said. The model is based on previous voting patterns and current economic conditions, which greatly benefit the party not in power. "People can get party fatigue and George W. Bush has served two terms," he said.
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