The May 16 forecast showed GDP rising 0.8% this year, down from the 1.9% growth rate it expected Jan. 20 but up from 0.3% in its April 11 forecast.

The May 16 forecast said the MBA expects $2.07 trillion in total mortgage originations this year, up 14% from 2024. Purchase originations are expected to rise 4.7% to $1.40 trillion, while refinances rise 33% to $672 billion.

In the first quarter, credit unions far outperformed the MBA's expectations for all lenders.

NCUA data pulled from Callahan’s Peer Suite showed credit unions originated $16.1 billion in total originations in the first quarter, up 20% from a year earlier. The MBA showed $384 billion in first-quarter originations, up just 1.9% from a year earlier.

The MBA revised total originations downward by only 0.3% from its April 11 forecast, with an upward 1% revision for purchases and a downward 3% revision for refinances as it expects mortgage rates to linger at their current high rates.

The May 16 forecast showed 30-year mortgage rates at 6.7% through September, and edging down only to 6.6% by year’s end. Its April 11 forecast had expected rates to be 7% at June 30 and end the year at 6.7%. Rates in the January and March forecasts ended the year at 6.5%.

The sharpest changes in the May 16 forecast to originations were shown for the third quarter, where it dialed back refinances by 8.4% and dialed up purchases by 1.6%. It made no changes to second-quarter predictions.

While the worst economic fears from early April have been so far avoided, there was damage to home starts in April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

“The economic uncertainty stemming from tariff issues, elevated mortgage rates and rising building material costs pushed single-family housing starts lower in April,” NAHB economist Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington wrote in a May 16 blog.

The National Association of Realtors said it expects to release data Thursday on existing home sales for April.

Contact Jim DuPlessis at [email protected].