An economist for America’s Credit Unions said Friday the Fed is likely to wait until later this year before cutting rates in the wake a report showing the job market remained healthy through mid-April.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that unemployment remained at 4.2% and non-farm jobs rose by 177,000 from March to April, slightly lower than the 185,000 job gain in March after a downward revision, but above the 152,000 average gain over the past year. The Bureau had previously reported a 228,000 gain for March and a 117,000 gain for February, which it reduced to a 102,000 gain.
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“The April jobs report was solid even in the face of mild downward revisions to prior months,” Curt Long, Chief Economist for America’s Credit Unions said.
Long said job sectors believed to be most exposed to tariffs were resilient through the second week of April when data was collected.
Besides healthcare, one of the strongest gains came from transportation and warehousing. It added 29,000 jobs in April, following a meager 3,000-job gain in March and an average gain of 12,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.
Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and leisure and hospitality.
“There are reasons to remain concerned that industries like trucking will see significant job losses in future months, as shipping volume is already contracting,” Long said. “But this is a reassuring report that likely pushes any rate cut from the Federal Reserve to the second half of the year at the earliest.”
Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, also expects the Fed will be slow to act.
“Despite the financial market volatility in April, and expectations of a sharp slowdown in economic activity in the coming months, these data will be enough to keep the Federal Reserve on the sidelines for now, as they assess whether the threat to economic growth or inflation is the bigger concern,” he said.
Fratantoni said the unemployment rate has not increased in recent months, but the duration of unemployment continues to lengthen.
“Given the declining number of job openings and the slow pace of hiring, for those who lose a job, it is getting tougher to find a new one,” he said.
For now, Fratantoni expects mortgage rates will remain in their current range.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said the report showed average weekly earnings growth is outpacing consumer price inflation.
“Regardless of what may be happening on Wall Street, where half of the stock market valuations are held by the top 1% of the population, Main Street America continues to move forward,” Yun said.
Contact Jim DuPlessis at [email protected].
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