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Mortgage Forecast Dims as High Rates Linger

MBA cuts its estimate for originations by 6% through the end of 2024 as the economy shows resilience and Feds raise rates.

Chart showing the MBA lowered its economic forecast for the rest of 2024

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) lowered its expectations for originations by about 6% through the end of 2024 as interest rates remain much higher than its earlier forecasts and home sales dipped in July.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Tuesday that existing homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.07 million in July, down 2.2% from June and down 16.6% from July 2022.

“Two factors are driving current sales activity — inventory availability and mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said. “Unfortunately, both have been unfavorable to buyers.”

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Jim DuPlessis

Jim DuPlessis

A journalist for decades.

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