Whether measuring from a year ago or the previous quarter, the increase in provisions were more than offset by rising net interest income.

Returns on operating income, which excludes loan loss provisions, were 1.36% in the fourth quarter, up from 0.84% a year earlier and 1.13% in the third quarter.

Fee income was $291.8 million — little changed after factoring in asset growth.

However, non-fee operating income, which had hammered results in early 2022, actually rose. Non-fee income was $662.9 million, or 0.68% of average assets, up from 0.61% a year earlier and 0.45% in the third quarter.

Operating expenses were $2.6 billion, or 2.69% of average assets, up from 2.63% a year earlier and 2.61% in the third quarter. Most of the increase came from higher costs for employee pay and benefits.

Earnings improved even as loan originations fell.

The Top 10 originated $8.1 billion in first- and second-lien residential loans in the fourth quarter, down 63% from a year earlier and down 31% from the third quarter.

The trends held for a broader sample: The 25-highest mortgage producers in 2021 (nine of them are in the Top 10). Their residential loan originations were $13.2 billion in the fourth quarter, down 58% from a year earlier and down 30% from the third quarter.

Those results followed national trends. The Mortgage Bankers Association estimated total residential mortgage originations were $398 billion in the fourth quarter, down 60% from a year ago and down 17% from the third quarter.

Top 10 production of non-real estate loans — such as car loans, credit cards and signature loans — was $23 billion, down 63% from a year ago, but up slightly from $22.6 billion in the third quarter.

Those results have too many moving parts to easily decipher, but since car loans are a third of the balance sheet at most credit unions, car sale trends might provide a clue.

Experian has reported credit unions gaining loan share margin through the third quarter of 2022, but sales have been sluggish.

Cox Automotive estimated that new cars sold at a seasonally adjusted rate of 14.2 million in the fourth quarter, up 9.5% from a year ago and up 6.4% from the third quarter.

While new car sales have risen for two consecutive quarters, used car sales have been sliding since 2021′s second quarter. And used car loans are the bread-and-butter of credit unions. The SAAR for used cars was 35.3 million, down 7.2% from a year ago and down 1.8% from the third quarter.

Despite the Top 10's falling loan production, their total loan balance was $266.6 billion in the fourth quarter, up 22% from a year earlier and up 3.5% from the third quarter. The gains are consistent with CUNA's monthly estimates that have shown record loan balance gains for the movement as a whole for January through November.

Credit union consultant Mike Higgins said some of the disconnect between rising balances and falling production is due to slower run-off.

One factor is consumers keeping loans longer by avoiding prepayments and refinancings.

Another factor is credit unions are selling fewer loans. The Top 10 sold $1.7 billion in first mortgages to the secondary market in the fourth quarter, down 75% from a year earlier and down 49% from the third quarter. The 25 large mortgage producers sold $2.5 billion in first mortgages to the secondary market in the fourth quarter, down 76% from a year earlier and down 46% from a year earlier.

Loan quality deteriorated for the Top 10, but remained relatively high. The Top 10's net charge-off ratio was 0.91%, up from 0.62% a year earlier and 0.54% in the third quarter. Loans at least 60 days late were 1.06% of total loans, up from 0.81% a year earlier and 0.92% in the third quarter.

The Top 10 account for about 20% of credit union assets and members. The group, unchanged from the third quarter, showed the following results:

1. Navy Federal Credit Union, Vienna, Va. ($156.6 billion in assets, 12.3 million members) had ROA of 1.41% in the fourth quarter, compared with 1.33% a year earlier and 1.05% in the third quarter. Originations were $12.7 billion, down 47%.

2. State Employees' Credit Union, Raleigh, N.C. ($51 billion, 2.7 million members) had ROA of 1.26% in the fourth quarter, compared with 1.08% a year earlier and 1.09% in the third quarter. Originations were $2.7 billion, down 38%.

3. Pentagon Federal Credit Union, Tysons, Va. ($35.5 billion, 2.8 million members) had ROA of 0.40% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.95% a year earlier and 0.90% in the third quarter. Originations were $1.7 billion, down 83%.

4. BECU, Tukwila, Wash. ($28.8 billion, 1.4 million members) had ROA of 1.31% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.53% a year earlier and 0.01% in the third quarter. Originations were $3.7 billion, up 23%.

5. SchoolsFirst Federal Credit Union, Santa Ana, Calif. ($28.2 billion, 1.3 million members) had ROA of 0.95% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.74% a year earlier and 0.62% in the third quarter. Originations were $1.9 billion, down 1.1%.

6. Alliant Credit Union, Chicago ($18.7 billion, 760,349 members) had ROA of 0.68% in the fourth quarter, compared with 1.21% a year earlier and 0.89% in the third quarter. Originations were $1.2 billion, down 16%.

7. Golden 1 Credit Union, Sacramento, Calif. ($18.5 billion, 1.1 million members) had ROA of 0.71% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.53% a year earlier and 0.68% in the third quarter. Originations were $1.7 billion, up 25%.

8. America First Federal Credit Union, Riverdale, Utah ($17.4 billion, 1.3 million members) had ROA of 2.04% in the fourth quarter, compared with 1.26% a year earlier and 1.17% in the third quarter. Originations were $3.8 billion, up 52%.

9. First Tech Federal Credit Union, San Jose, Calif. ($16.7 billion, 649,749 members) had ROA of 0.82% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.81% a year earlier and 0.30% in the third quarter. Originations were $854.7 million, down 46%.

10. Suncoast Credit Union, Tampa, Fla. ($16.2 billion, 1.1 million members) had ROA of 1.03% in the fourth quarter, compared with 1.09% a year earlier and 0.97% in the third quarter. Originations were $1.7 billion, up 3.2%.