"Labor force participation declined, and job gains were concentrated in areas like restaurants and hotels, which suffered during Omicron and are not likely to continue," Long said.

Curt Long

"Average wages grew at a robust 5.5% pace on a year-over-year basis, but by only 3.7% in the past quarter on an annualized basis," Long said.

The Fed raised rates by half a percentage point on Wednesday. "Sturdy job gains will keep the Federal Reserve on its present course, and credit unions should continue to expect two more 50-basis point rate hikes this summer," Long said.

On Thursday, economist Elliot Eisenberg said "wildly unsustainable" consumer demand and persistent inflation is forcing the Fed to raise rates aggressively. The expected increases this year shouldn't harm the economy, but overly high rate hikes in 2023 might tip the economy into a mild recession.

Elliot Eisenberg

"The Fed is likely to drive us into a garden-variety recession," he said during a webinar sponsored by Origence, a division of CU Direct of Irvine, Calif.

CUNA Senior Economist Dawit Kebede said Friday the economy added more jobs in April than expected as leisure and hospitality added more jobs as consumer demand for travel and recreation continues to increase as COVID fears lessen.

"Strong job gains and a low unemployment rate implies that consumer demand and spending will continue to be strong," Kebede said.

Dawit Kebede

Kebede said the labor force participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points from March, but the rate is expected to go up if the pandemic becomes less of a health concern.

"Strong demand for hiring, coupled with low labor supply, continues to increase wages, adding more inflationary pressure," Kebede said. "A persistent imbalance in labor demand and supply may lead to a wage-inflation spiral."

On April 13, the Mortgage Bankers Association lowered its forecast for purchase originations for the rest of the year as interest rates rose faster than it had previously forecast. It now expects the value of second quarter originations will be 7% higher than those in 2021's second quarter, while originations for the second half will fall 2%.

"Housing demand continues to benefit from one of the strongest job markets we have experienced in the last 50 years," MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni said Friday. "Although mortgage rates have risen sharply, and home prices have continued to rise at a rapid pace, we expect that many potential homebuyers will continue to be in the market given their strong financial position."

The MBA expects unemployment will fall to 3.3% by the end of September.