Credit unions and other card issuers might see significant growth in their card businesses over the next four years, according to new consumer spending projections from The Nilson Report. And for one credit union industry expert, the projections emphasized how much credit unions will need to compete in order to stay relevant to members.

The Nilson Report projected this week that combined spending for goods and services on debit, credit and prepaid cards will rise from $7.266 trillion in 2018 to $10.086 trillion in 2023.

Most of that spending (54.13%) will occur on credit cards by 2023, which is a slightly smaller proportion of total spending than in 2018 (54.17%) or 2017 (54.37%), it said. However, The Nilson Report also projected that outstanding balances will hit $1.435 trillion by the end of 2023, up from $1.124 trillion at the end of 2018. It predicted that the average credit card transaction would rise from $90.73 in 2018 to $94.44 in 2023.

"When nearly 7 billion payment cards generate more than $7 trillion in purchases of goods and services…you have to conclude the state of the card business is very good," The Nilson Report publisher David Robertson said.

The forecast also said that the number of credit, debit and prepaid cards in circulation in the United States would rise from 6.96 billion at the end of 2018 to 8.02 billion at the end of 2023.

Tony DeSanctis, who is a senior director at financial institution consulting firm Cornerstone Advisors, noted that the estimates highlighted an important connection between credit unions and shifting preferences among consumers.

"I think the most interesting aspect of the projection is the fact that we are starting to see the migration, albeit slight, from credit to debit," he told CU Times. "Basically the most important thing for credit union executives to recognize is that payments is likely the most common touchpoint they have with their members, and if they don't ensure that they are proactively managing their payments, they will be displaced by other players in the market."

The Nilson Report's projections keep pace with continued industry attention on the growing prevalence of digital-first relationships between credit unions and their members.

A recent whitepaper by Rancho Cucamonga, Calif.-based CO-OP Financial Services, for example, highlighted the growing importance of persuading members to connect their credit union cards to their online shopping accounts, retailer apps or bill payment systems.

"There's an enormous shift from card-in-hand retail to online purchases. Investing to get your card in the card-not-present, the monthly bills, the recurring billings, the Amazons, the Ubers and the Netflix of the world is a big place that our smart-growth team focuses on," President/CEO Todd Clark told CU Times when the whitepaper was released.

Additionally, a recent survey of more than 2,000 U.S. and UK adults by payments company Marqeta found that 62% of Americans do most of their banking online, 69% expect to use their mobile banking app regularly in the next three months and 67% said it wouldn't inconvenience them if their financial institutions closed all of their branches tomorrow.

Instant Insights /

New Card Projections Give Glimpse of the Future for Credit Unions

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