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A key economic sign that has been one of the most reliable predictors of recession occurring within 12 to 18 months might not apply in the current era, and other evidence is thin that a recession will arrive in the next 12 to 18 months, according to a CUNA report released Monday.

“The current yield curve inversion, which tends to be a good predictor of economic activity, doesn’t in this case necessarily mean that the longest expansion in modern U.S. history will end in the near future,” said Mike Schenk, CUNA’s VP of economics and statistics.

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Jim DuPlessis

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