A Slowdown Is Inevitable. But a Recession?

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Concerns that a recession is coming are rising, with a quarter of all economists saying that a slump is possible in the next 12 months. The current U.S. expansion clearly is slowing as the 10-year anniversary of the last recession approaches. But expansions don’t just end: Something has to serve as a trigger. Bloomberg Opinion columnists Nir Kaissar and Noah Smith recently met online to debate.

Nir Kaissar: The R-word seems to be on everyone’s mind these days. In a few months, the current U.S. economic expansion will be the longest on record. It’s already three times longer than the average expansion since 1854, and twice the average since 1945, according to numbers compiled by the National Bureau of Economic Research. No, booms don’t die of old age, but that doesn’t appear to soothe anxiety that the U.S. is due for a recession.