Credit unions have started 2018 with continued growth, mirroring the economy, but CUNA economists are watching President Trump's tariff declarations to see what damage they might do.

In CUNA's “Economic Update” video released March 19, CUNA economist Mike Schenk said he expected credit unions to stay on a course of buoyant growth.

“The U.S. economy is in good shape overall, and the on-going expansion should continue for the foreseeable future,” Schenk said.

However, much as he did 11 months ago, Schenk said progress could be derailed if protectionist policies lead to a trade war.

Economists from CUNA and CUNA Mutual Group will meet early next week and expect to release a forecast as early as Tuesday on trends for credit unions and the broader economy.

“In general, I don't think our view has changed much since we did that video,” Schenk said in a telephone interview Thursday.

“In general, financial markets tend to overreact in the short term to developments, and that's exactly what happened,” he said. “Things have sort of settled down since that time.”

In the video, Schenk cited reports that support optimism, including gross domestic product growth at annual 2.5% rate in the fourth quarter (since revised upward to 2.9%), following a “healthy” 3.2% rate in the third quarter. Also, consumer spending in the fourth quarter grew at a “very strong” 3.8% annual rate, and durable goods spending was rising at a 13.8% annual rate.

“That's a sure sign that consumers are in the game, confident, and looking for credit to finance their big-ticket purchases: good news for credit unions,” Schenk said in the video.

“Although the (Trump) administration aims for annual growth in the range of 3% to 4%, most economists expect GDP to grow at about 2% to 2.5% in a modern-day, healthy U.S. economy with relatively low population growth and moderate productivity growth.”

Job demand is strong; wages are gaining, but not enough to spark inflation.

“We're extremely concerned about increasing calls for trade tariffs and the possibility of trade war. “And judging from recent equity market swings, others share our concern.”

Three days later, Trump announced punitive tariffs against China, and the stock market dove again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to its lowest point since last November.

“Increasing protectionism is particularly harmful to economic growth. It increases prices, lowers efficiency and can result in significant job losses,” Schenk said in the video.

“Of course, many of our trading partners have threatened retaliation. Industry leaders are concerned. In the end, we believe tariffs will be limited and largely symbolic and that the policy ultimately adopted will exclude a number of our key trading partners.

“If we're right, then our baseline forecast seems to be appropriate,” he said. “If we're wrong, and policies are far reaching, then we'll more than likely downgrade the outlook—perhaps significantly.”

CUNA Mutual Group's Credit Union Trends Report shows January loan portfolios following last year's trends with total loans at $992.6 billion as of Jan. 31, up 10.9%, with growth in car loans far exceeding real estate.

Although the loan-to-savings ratio has reached a record 84.4%, up from 80.8% in January 2017.

Yet CUNA Mutual said further loan growth is still possible because credit unions are attracting new members at a rate exceeding 3% a year for the past three years, compared with 1% annual membership growth in 2004-2005, the last time loan growth exceeded 10%.

“Credit unions today can increase loan balances not only with existing members, but also with many new members discovering for the first time all of the quality financial products and services of a full-service, modern-day credit union.”

The Trends Report also showed that in January:

New car loans grew 14.1% to $137.2 billion.
Used car loans grew 12.4% to $209.9 billion.
Credit card balances grew 8.5% to $57.6 billion.
First-lien mortgages grew 9.3% to $397.6 billion.
Second-lien mortgages grew 8.1% to $85.1 billion.
Member business loans grew 18.2% to $80.8 billion.

Instant Insights /

Credit Unions Ride Growing Economy

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