Before the election results, I was addicted to the tracking polls. There, I said it. On the weekends, during my work breaks, on airplanes … I was checking the presidential horserace, the numerous close Senate races and the competitive House contests. The 2016 election has been the most watched in recent memory, and besides the “who's ahead today” discussions, many readers were wondering, “How will the 2016 election results affect my personal and work life?”

It was difficult at times to ignore the media firestorms and “advice” from those that claimed they could (a) predict the results and (b) how they might impact you.

Now that the election results are in, we still don't necessarily have an answer to this central question.

So, what's a person to do? In short, think in cycles.

Filene Research Institute's recent publication, “Trending: Credit Unions 2025,” explored what the credit union system may look like in the middle part of the next decade. To tackle this complex issue we weighed a host of variables, which can be broken down into trends and uncertainties. Trends are important drivers of change with a high likelihood of predictability … for example, unless a zombie apocalypse only impacts Gen Y, we can reasonably predict this generation will represent the largest segment of the workforce and consumer base by 2025. On the other hand, uncertainties are also important drivers of change but with a low likelihood of predictability … for instance, we know technology will impact consumer finance but we don't know specifically how. Many predict technological progress will lead us to favor virtual relationships over analog ones, but what if we experience a shocking hack into our private, financial lives? Technology will be important but for very different purposes and outcomes.

Similarly with the 2016 election, we know the outcomes will drive change at the international, national, state and local level, but we don't know specifically how. Even now that we know with certainty that Donald Trump is our new president elect and Republicans still hold the House and Senate majority, the outcome for credit unions is still very uncertain.

A great way to frame this (and other) drivers of change is to ensure you think in cycles. Recently my colleagues and I have been working with credit unions on a concept called The Strategy Cycle. Carried out over the course of a year, The Strategy Cycle includes methodologies to help you identify strategic issues, consider those challenges in a productive way and transfer those learnings into the strategic planning process. The outcome of the 2016 election is one of the topics that we could include as a “key input” into this process.

Let's break it down through an example for a hypothetical credit union and three scenarios.

• Scenario 1: Clinton wins the presidency. House and Senate stay Republican and Senate (50% probability 30 days before the election)

• Potential credit union impacts: Status quo situation, resulting in very little public policy changes for economic, social and trade issues. Increased focus on defensive policy positions to ensure the current set of rules stay intact. Economic models remain unchanged in terms of growth rates and monetary policy.

• Scenario 2: Clinton wins the presidency. House and Senate swing Democrat (15% probability)

• Potential credit union impacts: Public policy becomes more proscriptive on economic, social and trade issues. Advocacy for the credit union position becomes more offensive to ensure the credit union model operates unimpeded. Economic models shift toward a focus on higher cost funds and undetermined growth rates.

• Scenario 3: Trump wins the presidency. House and Senate stay Republican (35% probability)

• Potential credit union impacts: Public policy becomes unpredictable on all issues. Credit unions circle the “status quo” wagon and impose a wait and see perspective on advocacy issues. Economic models remain unchanged (but volatile) in the near-term and strong attention is paid to early warning signs of more predictable policy.

First, note how it is important to explore multiple, potential outcomes and assign a probability to each result so that you prioritize scenarios based on likelihood. Next, it is essential to talk about both direct (public policy) and indirect (economic) impacts of the potential outcomes. Finally, it is important to remind the reader that this amateur analysis simplifies things tremendously because this scenario explores only one (very large) variable. In reality, external impacts are a multivariate game so we should really be studying the cumulative impact of the 2016 election along with consumer sentiment, technology change and demographic shifts.

Now that the horserace is complete, traffic to the tracking polls will inevitably fall off so you can fill all your free time with strategic discussions about what the election outcomes mean for your credit union. It will surely be an interesting ride as we cycle through the many changes to the world we all live in.

George Hofheimer is chief knowledge officer, Filene Research Institute. He can be reached at 608-852-4632 or [email protected].