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Interest Rate Predictions Misguided

Take a longer view of interest rates and you may start to re-examine your outlook.

By Gary Tantleff | Updated on May 15, 2016

Ever since the recovery from the Great Recession began in approximately mid-2009, many individuals have been forecasting that interest rates will soon be on the rise. Over recent years, we have seen rates increase somewhat, only to fall back to unprecedented levels. But if we take a longer view of interest rates, we might re-examine our outlook.

For example, let’s take a look at 10-year Treasury yields. The high point for this Treasury was 15.84% on Sept. 30, 1981. As recently as February 2016, yields dipped to approximately 1.65%. But what has been the general course of yields during the almost 35 years between those two points? Perhaps a story is being told during that time that might be considered.

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