CUNA CFA Consumer spending survey WASHINGTON-- Consumers are not likely to spend more in the 2014 holiday season compared to the 2013 holiday season, according to a spending survey conducted by CUNA and the Consumer Federation of America.

In the survey, 1,009 adults were interviewed by phone between October 30, 2014 and November 2, 2014. CUNA said the margin of error is plus or minus three points.

“Overall, 87% of consumers tell us that they intend to spend about the same or less than last year – that’s up from 80% who answered similarly in 2013. Last year, we said that based on survey results, we predicated spending would grow somewhere between 3.5 and 4%. The actual increase was 3.4%,” Mike Schenk, CUNA senior economist said. “Our latest survey results suggest that this year’s increase in holiday spending will be very similar to last year’s increase. Therefore, based on the survey, we believe that this year’s holiday spending will increase between 3 and a 3.5%.”

According to the survey results, which were announced at the National Press Club on Monday, 33% of respondents said they would spend less than the previous year while 10% said they would spend more.

Last year, 13% said they would spend more and 32% said they would spend less. In 2008, 55% said they would spend less.

Respondents were asked to compare their current income with the amount they earned a year ago and 27% reported higher earnings while 21% reported lower income. In total, 28% said their overall financial situation was better compared to last year and 24% said it was worse.

When respondents were asked if they had enough money to cover an unexpected expense of $1,000, 47% said no, representing a 2% decrease from 2013.

“Top-line results from an economic perspective are encouraging and holiday spending almost certainly will increase this year,” Schenk said. “However, elements of our survey underscore the fact many consumers continue to reflect significant concerns about their personal finances – most especially in the realm of weak income gains. Because of this we expect the increase in holiday spending this season to be modest.”

CUNA and CFA said the survey results demonstrated a widening gap between high and low-income groups.

“Over one-third (34%) of those with household incomes under $25,000, compared to only 13% of those with incomes over $100,000, said their financial condition was worse now than a year ago,” the survey said.

In total, 33% of the low-income group and 13% of the upper-income group, indicated that their income was lower the previous year.

“The rising economic tide has not raised all boats equally,” CFA’s Executive Director Stephen Brobeck said. “Far fewer households with incomes above $100,000, than those with incomes below $25,000, have fared worse over the past year.”

As evidence of the widening gap, CUNA and CFA pointed to 63% of low-income group of respondents saying they were concerned about meeting monthly debt payments compared to one-fifth (21%) of the high-income group expressing a similar a concern. More than four-fifths (83%) of the low-income group and just 13% percent of the high-income group reported they did not have enough money to cover a $1,000 unexpected expense.

In the 2013 survey, CUNA and CFA asked if the effects of the budget battles in Congress on the respondents’ spending decisions. CU Times asked if the same question was asked again this year.

“We did not ask that question because it doesn’t appear to be on the national radar screen as much. The budget deficits as a percentage of spending are down,” Brobeck said. “They are still relatively high and in my personal view need attention but people, the country, experts are less concerned about this issue now than they were a year ago and so we decided to – we often substitute questions – we asked the perception of income question instead of that budget question.”

Instant Insights /

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