It's tempting to attempt to predict how many credit unions mighttry to jump to a bank charter in 2013. But that is hard to say.It's easier to observe some trends that came to the fore in 2012and are likely to continue next year.

First, NCUA regulations have definitely leveled the playingfield between credit union executives and members when it comes tochanging charters. The days when credit union boards of directorswere able to reliably count on credit union members to votethemselves out of being credit union members on the basis of thedirectors' mandates have largely ended.

More 2013 Watch

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• Dec. 27, 2012 Gen Y in the Year Ahead
  
• Dec. 27, 2012 Member Investments in the YearAhead
  
• Dec. 26, 2012 Human Resources in the Year Ahead
• Dec. 26, 2012 Member Business Lending in the YearAhead
• Dec. 21, 2012 Credit Union Taxation in the YearAhead
  
• Dec. 20, 2012 CUSOs in the Year Ahead
  
• Dec. 20, 2012 NCUA Board in the Year Ahead
  
• Dec. 19, 2012 Cards in the Year Ahead
  
• Dec. 19, 2012 Mortgage Lending in the Year Ahead
  
• Dec. 18, 2012 Low Income Service in the Year Ahead
  
• Dec. 17, 2012 Student Lending in the YearAhead
• Dec. 17, 2012 Auto Lending in the Year Ahead

If Technology Credit Union's charter change loss at the ballot boxproved nothing else, it showed that a small but organized anddetermined collection of members, if able to communicate with othermembers, can convince other members to make their credit union votemore than a rubber stamp.

Credit union members faced with a proposed charter change haveevery right to demand their leaders provide them with clear,understandable and authentic reasons for making the change and ifthey don't get the explanations they seek they will not go alongwith the change.

Second, as has been the case for a couple of years now, thelargest impediment to credit unions changing to bank charters maynot be the NCUA or even credit union members themselves, but theFDIC.

In the wake of the financial service crisis, while teams of FDICexperts are still arriving in the dead of night on Fridays toshutter or forcibly merge banks, the bank insurer has been loath totake on any more institutions whose loan portfolios or executiveexpertise might leave them with another Friday night cleanup todo.

No matter how many of the lines between not-for-profit creditunion financial services and for-profit banking services haveblurred, the two are still not interchangeable. And don't expectthe FDIC to relax its high standards for credit union to bankconversions in the year ahead.