If history is any indication, the increase in rates on long-term certificates of deposit could mean higher inflation is around the corner.

Research firm Market Rates Insight provided that analysis, saying the last time inflation was on the rise was in November 2003, when the annual inflation rate stood at 1.77%. In late 2003 and into 2004, the five-year CD rate started trending up in tandem with the increase in the annual inflation rate.

“Long-term CD rates are the canary in the coal mine,” said Dan Geller, executive vice president of MRI in San Anselmo, Calif. “When banks and credit unions increase rates on long-term CDs, it is to attract long range liquidity at relatively low rates, which will improve net interest margins once inflation rises, and eventually the Fed Funds rate increases as well.”