The short- and medium-term outlook for the U.S. real estate and mortgage markets would probably confound Nostradamus. Have home prices bottomed out? Will they hit bottom any time soon? How long will the current interest rates last? How long will it take to sell off the REO in the market and so on.

That's why the observations, opinions and hopes of Realtors can seem like a beacon of clarity. Realtors are the people who make their living in the gritty space where real estate prices meet mortgage limitations, seller hopes and buyer expectations. The data from the National Association of Realtors' most recent Realtors Confidence Index shows that the real estate glass is, at worst, half empty.

First, a majority of Realtors surveyed (54%) expected home prices will rise over the next year and, of those, 5% expect they will rise between 5% and 10%. Second, more than half of Realtors in the month the survey was taken had participated in a real estate transaction. Third, in 38% percent of those transactions, the Realtors reported that the purchase was the buyer's first.

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