ARLINGTON, Va. — It's almost certain that credit union card programs will see less card interchange from travel and tourism this summer; the only question remaining is how much.
Travel associations and card brands report with varying levels of optimism that U.S. travelers, by and large, have not cut their travel plans entirely but instead have cut back on how far they go and how often. Thus travel to domestic destinations has been projected to remain relatively healthy, while travel to more distant destinations, which might generate more card interchange from higher prices, will likely fall.
But even as a shift in travel patterns appears to be underway, at least for this year, it's harder to gauge its impact on CU card interchange. The biggest associations or CUSOs that service credit union card needs do not track CU card interchange data to that detail, so it would be difficult to measure how much slower travel might cut CU card income. Credit unions have often tied card marketing and promotions to summer travel as members' summer travels have long been seen as a way to keep card use active during what can be an otherwise slow season.
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Visa Inc. released a study of international travel that came to this conclusion about Americans traveling outside the U.S.: While 50% of the card brand holders surveyed said they planned to travel over the next year, the majority of those said they would travel to Canada or Mexico.
"Americans love to travel; it's hard to keep them at home," said Vicente Echeveste, a leading travel and tourism executive with Visa. "Even though Americans aren't going as far this year, the fact that they continue to exhibit a strong willingness to travel overseas reinforces international tourism as a strong driver of global economic growth."
But as hard as it might be for Americans to stay at home, Visa's survey showed that 54% of Americans surveyed said the cost of traveling to destinations outside the U.S. will keep them at home and another 49% said the overall condition of the economy was discouraging their international travel.
Visa conducted it's survey of international travel intentions from May 12-22 this year among 1,000 U.S. cardholders who had traveled overseas in the last three years.
Further, travel experts note that even when Americans are traveling, they are tending to cut back on the types of things where they used to use credit cards. News reports on the declining rate of travel, both domestic and overseas, report that visitors are cutting the number of nights they might stay at a location or buying groceries at a given location and choosing hotel rooms with small refrigerators or kitchenettes and microwaves so they don't have to eat out as much.
"Using a phrase like 'We plan to travel if prices for fuel and tickets don't rise too high' is not the same as saying we have booked a trip to a certain location and we plan to go," observed Mike Pina, director public relations for the American Automobile Association. But Pina maintained that the association was standing by its forecasts for the summer.
That survey, AAA's first ever, showed the number of international trips rising 2.6% over last year and the total amount of spending on them moving up 5.7%.
"We really haven't seen anything yet which would lead us to change our forecast," Pina said, but acknowledged that anecdotal reports indicated that travel overall and particularly travel overseas may be down this year.
The concern that Americans do not appear to be coming has started showing up in traditional European summer vacation destinations that participate in the European currency (Euro). More tourists this year have been booking their trips to Eastern European destinations that have not yet adopted the Euro and are thus less expensive, news reports have said.
VisitBritain, a site run by Britain's tourism industry, has begun offering travelers from the United States discount cards in dollars, which they can use to more inexpensively visit the key sights in London and other British cities.
Irish tourism organizations have tried to turn American concerns about cost on their head as a reason to visit. "Ireland," the island nation asks in advertising campaigns, "can you afford not to go?"
The Paris Convention and Visitors Bureau has tried to capitalize a bit on the trend by trying to continue to at least draw visitors to Paris this summer who might, in previous years, have traveled on other destinations in France or Europe generally. The bureau has put out a publication highlighting the things to do in Paris in the summer, even as most Paris residents flee the city in the hottest months.
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