ARLINGTON, Va. — It's almost certain that credit union card programs will see less card interchange from travel and tourism this summer; the only question remaining is how much.

Travel associations and card brands report with varying levels of optimism that U.S. travelers, by and large, have not cut their travel plans entirely but instead have cut back on how far they go and how often. Thus travel to domestic destinations has been projected to remain relatively healthy, while travel to more distant destinations, which might generate more card interchange from higher prices, will likely fall.

But even as a shift in travel patterns appears to be underway, at least for this year, it's harder to gauge its impact on CU card interchange. The biggest associations or CUSOs that service credit union card needs do not track CU card interchange data to that detail, so it would be difficult to measure how much slower travel might cut CU card income. Credit unions have often tied card marketing and promotions to summer travel as members' summer travels have long been seen as a way to keep card use active during what can be an otherwise slow season.