NAPLES, Fla. — These may well be 'the worst of times' politically when a respected reporter like Ron Brownstein can tell an audience of CU league executives, “I've been covering politics since 1984 and I've never seen anything like this.” The 'anything like this' he's referring to is the American presidential campaign and congressional governance climate of 2008 and what it augers for America's future as a world power.

The presidential campaign is in flux, with previously held assurances shattered, Brownstein said. For example, John McCain, once written off as dead, has re-awakened his quest for the Republican nomination for president. An unknown Southern governor and former Baptist preacher who doesn't believe in the theory of evolution and wants a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. has emerged a primary winner. The former mayor of New York who gained a leadership mantle following 9/11 is depending on the Florida primary to spike his own sinking campaign and a former Massachusetts governor has injected millions of dollars of his own money into his quest. And that's just the Republican side.

On the Democratic side, sniping on race and gender has generated more heat than energy. All the usual alignments are now up-ended, said Brownstein, whose new book, “The Second Civil War,” explores how “extreme partisanship has paralyzed Washington and polarized America,” details the historical context of such divisions and compares them to the present day. “In Democratic politics since 1968, one candidate has appealed to the blue collar Dems who are socially conservative, or we had a candidate that appealed to upscale, white-collar, more socially liberal voters. I call it the beer/wine divide,” said Brownstein.

This time around, however, these usual coalitions are being broken both left and right, with Mike Huckabee sounding more blue collar on economic issues, and Hillary Clinton scoring better with women and the no college-degree demographic. Barack Obama has drawn strength among males and college-educated voters. To underline the upsets, Brownstein noted that Clinton won the college voters in New Hampshire and Obama failed to garner black voters in Michigan's primary, where 70% of them voted 'undecided.'

“It's easier to see why any of these candidates won't get the nomination than to discern why they would earn their party's nomination,” he said. “It's been four races, three winners. That means it's an incredibly fractured race and seems impossible to predict a clear winner.” He said he doubted if McCain could get enough independents and Republican conservatives to support him. “He's formidable, but you can't get the nomination without your party's voters actually voting for you.” As for Fred Thompson, Brownstein said he'd entered the race as the promised uniter of both the socially conservative and strong defense coalitions but then frittered away any buzz with a lackluster campaign style.

Rudy Giuliani always faced opposition from the social conservative wing and now may have his “last bite at the big apple in Florida. Mitt Romney, winner in Michigan may well be the most appealing candidate, and they usually win, but he hasn't stirred up any passion at all. He may have found his message these last few weeks, but he's changed positions so many times and reversed himself from his previous record that it could be a problem.”

It's possible that no clear winner will emerge before the national conventions, he said. But whoever the nominees are, and whichever of them wins the office, there are real problems that face the president that political divisions may complicate so much they may not be able to be resolved.

“Party line voting in Congress is the highest it's ever been in our nation, and Bush's low popularity is now at Grand Canyon proportions. If we look at the range of problems we face, it may be nearly impossible to deal with things with only 51% support,” said Brownstein. Winning the presidency and governing with 51% was Karl Rove's campaign strategy and it was successful for the Republican Party, but it has proven unfortunate as a governing strategy, Brownstein said.

Thomas Jefferson said, “Great change should not be forced on a slender majority,” Brownstein related. “Our country is more divided now than we were in the 1960s and political advisors are counseling candidates to sharpen those divisions,” he said. Such rancor won't serve the broad spirit of nationalism that Teddy Roosevelt spoke of in a series of speeches and writings he gave after leaving the White House about the role of the president. “TR saw the value of loosening the partisan divide. It may be that the candidate that acts in that manner offers a hope to do the same today,” said Brownstein.

–cburger@cutimes.com

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