RANCHO CUCAMONGA, Calif. -- Does it seem as though the campaign cycle starts earlier and earlier, with coverage of potential candidates and televised debates occurring well in advance of actual elections?

If you said yes, the majority of state credit union leagues' political experts seem to agree with you.

To find out what this means to credit unions, especially with a presidential election year looming, Credit Union Times talked to government affairs staff in four large states--California, Texas, New York and Pennsylvania.

For politicians, these are A-list states with large numbers of voters. They're also states with expensive major media markets, which translates into high costs for local and state candidates as well as national ones.

The Center for Responsive Politics estimates the 2004 presidential and congressional elections cost $3.9 billion. The center figures the presidential race alone cost $1.2 billion or more.

CALIFORNIA

Ron Fong, California-Nevada Credit Union League director of state government affairs, notes candidates have been popping up on the league's radar screen since February this year.

"The problem is it's becoming more and more expensive to run campaigns," he says. "It's very competitive, and candidates are faced with having to raise a lot of money. If they don't get started early, they can't do it."

At the same time, "For credit unions, I think their instinct is to tune it out at this point and leave it to us--their trade association--to monitor it for them. In other words, if they don't have to get involved right now, they don't want to get involved. They have a credit union to run."

Actually, Fong explains, his office and the candidates are on two different timetables. As in other states, candidates would like to enroll the league and other trade associations as supporters--and donors--as soon

as possible.

But from the league's perspective, "What we'd like to do is identify every candidate and not take a position that early. In all of these races the filing deadline has not even gone. Unless there is an obvious superstar, we want to take it slow and steady, wait until the filing deadline, and take our time identifying the best candidates."

He laughs as he agrees it's like a young woman with several interesting suitors. They would each like a commitment, but she's wondering who else is out there.

"We haven't turned down anyone yet," Fong says. "When someone wants to come and see us, we open the door. We thank them for coming in. We explain we take our direction from our membership, and what they really ought to do is meet their local credit union folks."

For California political junkies 2008 will be a complicated year. The state's presidential primary, is scheduled Feb. 5. At the same time voters will decide on an initiative to restructure the state's term limits for elected offices.

In a June 4 primary, voters will narrow down candidates running for the state legislature. As things stand now there are 24 open seats in the Senate and 10 in the assembly. However, if term limits are changed, there might not be 34 seats available because some incumbents could remain in office.

Fong believes even in a presidential election year, such state and local issues hold their own. More people turn out to vote, and as long as they're at the polls, they want a say on other issues.

"We have candidates steadily streaming into our office to talk and be interviewed," he says. "The league has put together a booklet outlining all the candidates, and we're getting our people ready to know these candidates. We want to get acquainted with the candidates early so we can tell if they're credit union

friendly or not."

So the league is not waiting until Feb. 5 to determine if some legislative seats won't be up for election. The premise is any candidate could be a potential officeholder. California credit unions want to be prepared whatever happens.

TEXAS

Seven million Texans voted in the 2004 election, and at this point there's no reason to believe there won't be an equal or larger turnout in 2008.

In 2004, television networks election-night coverage colored Texas red, or Republican, as the state voted for George W. Bush. But Buddy Gill, senior vice president/advocacy at the Texas Credit Union League, stresses the pendulum is always swinging.

"We have friends on all sides of the aisle," he states. "We're not blue or red. We're purple."

Gill agrees the election process does seem to start earlier. In fact, he has been joking with groups, "Doesn't it seems as though the election is this November? There's a flurry of interest, and it's hard to believe it's a year away."

However, he adds, that's primarily true when it comes to the presidential election. At the state level he sees the pace as pretty normal.

"We've gotten invitations to about 100 fundraisers so far, but this is about the season for it," Gill says. "They [candidates] usually start their fundraisers right after Labor Day. I used to tease people and say, 'You know what you call a candidate who can raise money?' 'What?' 'Senator.'

"That's what separates a lot of the candidates. The ones who are aggressively asking for money understand it takes a lot of money to communicate to a lot of voters. You want to do television, although in some places that's too expensive.

"You have to do radio or at least direct mail. In big states like Florida, New York and Texas you see many candidates doing a lot of direct mail because the media markets are so expensive. When you're sending out 30,000 or 40,000 pieces of direct mail, you have to raise money to do that."

Elections are all about counting, Gill emphasizes. You have to count where your votes are. When you're running for president you count where the electoral votes are. You have to count contributions, because the way the media covers campaigns money raised is a surrogate for votes cast.

Gill believes most credit unions understand their fate is linked to how lawmakers view them. As a result, credit union PAC contributions are doing well in Texas.

As far as voters zeroing in on specific issues, Gill believes the war in Iraq and Afghanistan colors people's discussions about what they want from the federal government. Some 20% of voters always seem to be paying attention. But the election is a year away, so if asked what they think, many or most voters would reply they should be asked when the election is closer.

In Texas, Gills says, Republicans seem very concerned about illegal immigration. Democrats appear to be focusing on health care and education. On the state and credit union level, credit unions are pinpointing data security legislation and the sunset process for the state's independent credit union regulator.

NEW YORK

Credit unions in New York State are already showing interest in the 2008 election, according to Amy Kramer, VP/governmental affairs at the New York State Credit Union League.

That's good news, as far as she is concerned. With candidates hustling for votes and money earlier and earlier, "Credit unions absolutely have to get involved. You need to make sure a candidate from your area or state knows what credit unions are and what the issues are in financial services."

Asked to list key issues New Yorkers will likely look at, Kramer cites health care and immigration.

Will the NYSCUL be doing anything differently in this election cycle?

"The big difference is we've got two candidates for the presidential nomination from our state," Kramer says. "We've been working with CUNA, and CUNA has really been working on a grassroots strategy.

"It's going to be a big election for us in New York. Obviously we encourage all our credit unions to use their close relationships with lawmakers, and maybe even step it up a notch. We don't want to forget state and Congressional elections when all the presidential campaigning is going on."

PENNSYLVANIA

Christina Mahalik, AVP/government affairs for the Pennsylvania Credit Union Association, notes there are as many as six challengers in some districts.

That means learning who these people are, educating both incumbents and challengers on the credit union mission and philosophy, and fortifying established bonds with incumbents.

She adds that incumbents, especially new ones, focus primarily on remaining in office and working with their constituents. But in the back of their minds is the question of where they are going to get the next check to support their campaign.

The PCUA formula in 2008 will again include PAC funding for candidates with a proven track record of supporting credit unions, continuing to build relationships between individual credit unions and the candidates in their Congressional or state districts, and grassroots activity such as volunteer work for candidates.

Mike Wishnow, VP/communications, believes Pennsylvania pretty much reflects the rest of the country. On the national level voters are concerned about issues such as the war, the economy and sub-prime lending fallout.

As for specific state issues, "Pennsylvania is a mature state," he notes. "Our highways are old, our bridges are old, so paying for repairs as well as mass transit is an issue. Where will the money come from? Can we get it out of the federal budget? Can the state adjust things?

"Interstate 80 is a major east-west route across the northern corridor of Pennsylvania. It's going to be a huge deb

ate in our legislature over whether to toll it. It's an interstate highway with federal implications."

--ecour58516@aol.com

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