RANCHO CUCAMONGA, Calif. -- Does it seem as though the campaigncycle starts earlier and earlier, with coverage of potentialcandidates and televised debates occurring well in advance ofactual elections?

If you said yes, the majority of state credit union leagues'political experts seem to agree with you.

To find out what this means to credit unions, especially with apresidential election year looming, Credit Union Times talked togovernment affairs staff in four large states--California, Texas,New York and Pennsylvania.

For politicians, these are A-list states with large numbers ofvoters. They're also states with expensive major media markets,which translates into high costs for local and state candidates aswell as national ones.

The Center for Responsive Politics estimates the 2004presidential and congressional elections cost $3.9 billion. Thecenter figures the presidential race alone cost $1.2 billion ormore.

CALIFORNIA

Ron Fong, California-Nevada Credit Union League director ofstate government affairs, notes candidates have been popping up onthe league's radar screen since February this year.

"The problem is it's becoming more and more expensive to runcampaigns," he says. "It's very competitive, and candidates arefaced with having to raise a lot of money. If they don't getstarted early, they can't do it."

At the same time, "For credit unions, I think their instinct isto tune it out at this point and leave it to us--their tradeassociation--to monitor it for them. In other words, if they don'thave to get involved right now, they don't want to get involved.They have a credit union to run."

Actually, Fong explains, his office and the candidates are ontwo different timetables. As in other states, candidates would liketo enroll the league and other trade associations assupporters--and donors--as soon

as possible.

But from the league's perspective, "What we'd like to do isidentify every candidate and not take a position that early. In allof these races the filing deadline has not even gone. Unless thereis an obvious superstar, we want to take it slow and steady, waituntil the filing deadline, and take our time identifying the bestcandidates."

He laughs as he agrees it's like a young woman with severalinteresting suitors. They would each like a commitment, but she'swondering who else is out there.

"We haven't turned down anyone yet," Fong says. "When someonewants to come and see us, we open the door. We thank them forcoming in. We explain we take our direction from our membership,and what they really ought to do is meet their local credit unionfolks."

For California political junkies 2008 will be a complicatedyear. The state's presidential primary, is scheduled Feb. 5. At thesame time voters will decide on an initiative to restructure thestate's term limits for elected offices.

In a June 4 primary, voters will narrow down candidates runningfor the state legislature. As things stand now there are 24 openseats in the Senate and 10 in the assembly. However, if term limitsare changed, there might not be 34 seats available because someincumbents could remain in office.

Fong believes even in a presidential election year, such stateand local issues hold their own. More people turn out to vote, andas long as they're at the polls, they want a say on otherissues.

"We have candidates steadily streaming into our office to talkand be interviewed," he says. "The league has put together abooklet outlining all the candidates, and we're getting our peopleready to know these candidates. We want to get acquainted with thecandidates early so we can tell if they're credit union

friendly or not."

So the league is not waiting until Feb. 5 to determine if somelegislative seats won't be up for election. The premise is anycandidate could be a potential officeholder. California creditunions want to be prepared whatever happens.

TEXAS

Seven million Texans voted in the 2004 election, and at thispoint there's no reason to believe there won't be an equal orlarger turnout in 2008.

In 2004, television networks election-night coverage coloredTexas red, or Republican, as the state voted for George W. Bush.But Buddy Gill, senior vice president/advocacy at the Texas CreditUnion League, stresses the pendulum is always swinging.

"We have friends on all sides of the aisle," he states. "We'renot blue or red. We're purple."

Gill agrees the election process does seem to start earlier. Infact, he has been joking with groups, "Doesn't it seems as thoughthe election is this November? There's a flurry of interest, andit's hard to believe it's a year away."

However, he adds, that's primarily true when it comes to thepresidential election. At the state level he sees the pace aspretty normal.

"We've gotten invitations to about 100 fundraisers so far, butthis is about the season for it," Gill says. "They [candidates]usually start their fundraisers right after Labor Day. I used totease people and say, 'You know what you call a candidate who canraise money?' 'What?' 'Senator.'

"That's what separates a lot of the candidates. The ones who areaggressively asking for money understand it takes a lot of money tocommunicate to a lot of voters. You want to do television, althoughin some places that's too expensive.

"You have to do radio or at least direct mail. In big stateslike Florida, New York and Texas you see many candidates doing alot of direct mail because the media markets are so expensive. Whenyou're sending out 30,000 or 40,000 pieces of direct mail, you haveto raise money to do that."

Elections are all about counting, Gill emphasizes. You have tocount where your votes are. When you're running for president youcount where the electoral votes are. You have to countcontributions, because the way the media covers campaigns moneyraised is a surrogate for votes cast.

Gill believes most credit unions understand their fate is linkedto how lawmakers view them. As a result, credit union PACcontributions are doing well in Texas.

As far as voters zeroing in on specific issues, Gill believesthe war in Iraq and Afghanistan colors people's discussions aboutwhat they want from the federal government. Some 20% of votersalways seem to be paying attention. But the election is a yearaway, so if asked what they think, many or most voters would replythey should be asked when the election is closer.

In Texas, Gills says, Republicans seem very concerned aboutillegal immigration. Democrats appear to be focusing on health careand education. On the state and credit union level, credit unionsare pinpointing data security legislation and the sunset processfor the state's independent credit union regulator.

NEW YORK

Credit unions in New York State are already showing interest inthe 2008 election, according to Amy Kramer, VP/governmental affairsat the New York State Credit Union League.

That's good news, as far as she is concerned. With candidateshustling for votes and money earlier and earlier, "Credit unionsabsolutely have to get involved. You need to make sure a candidatefrom your area or state knows what credit unions are and what theissues are in financial services."

Asked to list key issues New Yorkers will likely look at, Kramercites health care and immigration.

Will the NYSCUL be doing anything differently in this electioncycle?

"The big difference is we've got two candidates for thepresidential nomination from our state," Kramer says. "We've beenworking with CUNA, and CUNA has really been working on a grassrootsstrategy.

"It's going to be a big election for us in New York. Obviouslywe encourage all our credit unions to use their close relationshipswith lawmakers, and maybe even step it up a notch. We don't want toforget state and Congressional elections when all the presidentialcampaigning is going on."

PENNSYLVANIA

Christina Mahalik, AVP/government affairs for the PennsylvaniaCredit Union Association, notes there are as many as sixchallengers in some districts.

That means learning who these people are, educating bothincumbents and challengers on the credit union mission andphilosophy, and fortifying established bonds with incumbents.

She adds that incumbents, especially new ones, focus primarilyon remaining in office and working with their constituents. But inthe back of their minds is the question of where they are going toget the next check to support their campaign.

The PCUA formula in 2008 will again include PAC funding forcandidates with a proven track record of supporting credit unions,continuing to build relationships between individual credit unionsand the candidates in their Congressional or state districts, andgrassroots activity such as volunteer work for candidates.

Mike Wishnow, VP/communications, believes Pennsylvania prettymuch reflects the rest of the country. On the national level votersare concerned about issues such as the war, the economy andsub-prime lending fallout.

As for specific state issues, "Pennsylvania is a mature state,"he notes. "Our highways are old, our bridges are old, so paying forrepairs as well as mass transit is an issue. Where will the moneycome from? Can we get it out of the federal budget? Can the stateadjust things?

"Interstate 80 is a major east-west route across the northerncorridor of Pennsylvania. It's going to be a huge deb

ate in our legislature over whether to toll it. It's aninterstate highway with federal implications."

[email protected]