WASHINGTON — How much can Hillary Clinton help or hurt Democrats in the 2008 election year? Will a Republican presidential candidate emerge to solidify the traditional socially conservative Republicans? Pundits attempted to answer these questions and more during a Power Breakfast hosted by National Journal and CUNA.
"Today's event will result in broad exposure for credit unions, and CUNA, before a vital audience in the nation's capital: The Washington insiders who play important roles in helping to develop policy," CUNA Senior Vice President of Political Affairs Richard Gose said. "By participating in today's event with the panelists–including Pulitzer Prize finalist Ron Brownstein–that CUNA helped bring together, these insiders from Capitol Hill and in the Washington lobbying community are seeing credit unions in the thick of the political process." He added that the XM Satellite Radio broadcast of the event would bring credit unions as part of the political process to the public.
For the Democrats it seems Senator Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) is the one to beat and after months without mishap, the recent Democratic debate may have revealed a chink in the armor. "Obviously she did herself some damage in the following way…she's opened up the area of candor," National Journal Contributing Editor and National Journal on the Air Host Linda Douglass commented. Voters may be led to wonder by her responses on vital issues like Iran and Iraq how forthcoming she might be as president, she explained.
Recommended For You
"On the other hand," she observed, "did any of her opponents do themselves any good?" The panelists appeared to agree they had not. Douglas pointed out that Senator Barack Obama (D-Ill.) did not look "tough and strong" as the pundits thought he needed to, to surpass Clinton as the favorite. Additionally, former Senator John Edwards (D-N.C.) did not come off as "particularly likeable" as he should have.
National Journal Group author and Political Director Ron Brownstein added that according to all the polling, "Hillary Clinton has become a true frontrunner," improving over the last several months from 37% voting for her to 50%.
Unless something significant happens before the New Hampshire primary, he said, she will get the nomination. "If you're going to have a chance to beat Hillary Clinton, you almost have to beat her in New Hampshire," Brownstein said, adding that the "almost" was being generous. However, Obama tends to poll better with well-educated voters and New Hampshire rates one of the best in that regard.
As a pundit, Brownstein reminded that he must be cautious. "You don't want to run the race off the road before anybody votes."
The Republican primary race is much more fluid. Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of The Hotline, noted the Democrats are pretty happy with their candidates. "On the Republican side, there still is that yearning there," she said.
Many thought former Senator Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) would be that man. "Fred Thompson does illustrate how unreliable these polls are," Douglas said. The Republican anticipation of his announcement quickly led to an anti-climactic campaign thus far.
Walter also pointed out that Republicans are clamoring toward their traditional base of social conservatives. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee would be better suited to them, yet since Senator Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) dropped out of the presidential race, he has been working with Giuliani, she highlighted. Huckabee is also an attractive vice presidential candidate, according to Walter.
Counterintuitively, Thompson could also be a detriment to the conservative block of the Republican Party because he could potentially take the southern states from the more conservative candidates and leave a win wide open for someone like Giuliani, Brownstein
projected.
It truly is a "big deal" who wins the early state primaries, he said, because those voters have been courted for a year in advance so it could lead voters in other states to change their mind wondering if they had missed something good or bad about one of the candidates.
Republicans are having a tough election cycle all the way around, moderator Rebecca Roberts, XM Radio's POTUS '08 political channel anchor, said with 12 retiring in the House and five in the Senate already. Walter said the independent vote will really come into play in these states. Given the recent trials of the Republican Party and their lagging funding–a $27 million deficit to the Dems–Republicans could have a more difficult time picking up seats.
In fact, Brownstein said there is a potential for Democrats to widen the spread in the Senate, particularly with more voters keeping with a particular party for the president and Congress. Clinton, he said, could actually hurt new Democratic incumbents in red states, he forecast. In reverse, a number of Republicans, including Senate Banking Committee Member John Sununu (R-N.H.), are having trouble in the traditionally blue states.
Ironically, Republicans have not been conservative enough, Brownstein noted, and are driving away Independents in the middle.
© Touchpoint Markets, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more inforrmation visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
