Had the failed Constitution Corporate FCU written off its investmentlosses as incurred, the $1.3 billion corporate could today have asmuch as $100 million in positive equity, according to Kevin Heal,vice president of sales and business development at theWashington-based mutual fund provider Trust for Credit Unions.

Heal analyzed Constitution Corporate's current actual investmentlosses, which were posted publicly online Tuesday by the ChipFilson-led Co-Ops for Change, and provided the comments in arelease from the group.

In June, Filson, who is also chairman of Callahan &Associates, posted online 2,504 legacy asset CUSIP numbers heobtained from Credit Union Times and invited industryexecutives to crowdsource current values for the securities that wereformerly owned by five failed corporate credit unions.

Credit Union Times obtained the information from the NCUA in May.

Constitution was liquidated on Nov. 30, 2010 after it was seizedon Sept. 24, 2010. It was the only corporate out of the five thatwas not given a chance to recapitalize as a bridge institution.

“In examining the Constitutionportfolio we found that out of the $1.46 billion of securitiesoriginally purchased between 2002 and 2007, there has been $55million in realized losses,” Heal said. “While more losses areexpected in the future, it seems that a number of these securitieswill eventually recover most of their value.”

According to Co-Ops for Change, the analysis shows $598 millionin investments with a principal balance of $383 million remainingas of June 30, 2013. The book-value reduction is due to principalpay downs of $215 million, including $55 million in actual/impliedlosses. This leaves over $100 million in OTTI reserves.

Filson said analysis of the former Connecticut-based corporateis the first of five that will be posted by Co-Ops for Change.

The goal of the project, he said, is to allow credit unions tojudge whether corporate losses will exceed the failed cooperatives'reserves, and if additional assessments to pay for corporatestabilization are necessary. The NCUA Board is expected to announcethe 2013 corporate assessment rate at its July 25 monthlymeeting.

“Constitution's spreadsheet and analysis offer a starting pointfor evaluating past actions and future projections,” Filson said.“The final outcome may be much better than estimated, suggestingthe need for a judicious approach in future cases that includesreforming the process.”

The NCUA was not immediately available for comment on theanalysis.