The Mortgage Bankers Association tweaked up its forecast for purchase originations in the first half as the economy has proved more resilient than it expected.
The MBA's forecast dated Feb. 17 showed $718 billion in purchase originations in the first half, reflecting a 1.8% upward revision from its Jan. 21 forecast. The revised amount is 12.4% higher than a year earlier.
No origination estimates were revised outside the first half, and the changes were mostly to the first quarter.
No changes were made to refinances, which the MBA said it still expects to rise 58% to $410 billion in the first half. The Jan. 21 forecast had revised refinance originations upward by 5.1% for the first half.
However, its Jan. 21 forecast for purchases lowered its first half forecast by 2.8% from its Dec. 12 forecast. With the Feb. 17 upward revision, the first half estimate is still 1% below the Dec. 12 forecast.
But with the stronger upward revision to refinances, total originations for the first half have been revised upward by 1.2% from the Dec. 12 to the Feb. 17 forecasts.
The MBA estimated total originations will be $1.13 trillion in the first half, up 25% from a year earlier.
The MBA is adjusting as the economy proves more resilient than it expected. The Dec. 12 forecast expected the Gross National Product to increase 1.5% in 2026. The last two forecasts have increased GNP to a 2.1% gain.
The MBA raised its March 31 forecast for mortgage rates for March. The Feb. 17 forecast expects the rate for conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgages to be 6.2% on March 31, compared to the Jan. 21 forecast of 6.1% at the end of the first quarter.
The MBA said it still expects rates to be 6.1% from June through December.
The MBA said the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($832,750 or less) was 6.17% Feb. 13, down from 6.21% a week earlier and about 7% a year earlier.
Contact Jim DuPlessis at Jim.DuPlessis@arc-network.com.
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