Happy New Year!

I love January, when everyone is full of optimism and focused on self-improvement. It's theright environment for credit unions, which are a place for membersto find an organization willing to give them a chance – or a secondchance – to improve their financial position.

What will 2016 bring? Last year CUTimes celebrated its 25^th anniversary, and partof our historical coverage included reprinting columns from 1990written by Mike Welch, our founder and former publisher. Mike used to pena prediction column each year, as did currentPublisher/Editor-in-Chief Sarah Snell Cooke.

It's a tall order to “be like Mike” or be like Sarah. But it's anew year and I'm feeling optimistic and focused onself-improvement.

So, at the risk of failing miserably, I'd like to make thefollowing predictions for the credit union community for 2016.

1. Warnings of an economic crash have been greatlyexaggerated.

Perhaps you've read the headlines warning of a massive globaleconomic collapse. Some countries experienced big drops in theirstock markets to begin the year, but does that mean the sky isfalling? Probably not.

It's true some economies have asset bubbles that are poised topop. Don't they always? Economies don't grow consistently; the onlyconsistency is a pattern of expansion and contraction. Predictingwhen each will occur keeps economists employed. Likemeteorologists, they usually get it wrong.

I recall at the beginning of the Great Recession, some punditswere predicting we'd be living off the land by 2012, and the bestHoliday gift one could hope for in the future was food. Likeend-of-the-world predictions, it didn't happen.

Yes, some countries will experience hard times in 2016, but theU.S. isn't one of them. I predict our economy's performance thisyear will be best described as “meh.” We'll have a little bit ofgrowth, but nothing spectacular; nor will we experience a bigcrash.

2. However, there is a crisis lurking among creditunions.

There may not be a macro-crisis on the horizon, but the shareinsurance fund could be rocked in 2016. Which asset bubble willtake the hit? The obvious choice is taxi medallion loans. That shiphas sailed and isn't returning to the dock. Ever.

On Jan. 4, General Motors announced it invested $500 million inLyft, one of two growing taxi competitors. That didn't helpmedallion values, which are already on the ropes.

Credit unions can file all the federal lawsuits they want, but that won't help the values ofmore than $2.4 billion in medallion loans on their books. It'sno corporate crisis, but it's likely the share insurance fund willtake a big hit – I predict it will be in the hundreds of millionsof dollars – and it will happen this year.

I also think the private student loan market is dangerous for credit unions, andthose loans have yet to come back to haunt the industry. And, inthe true nature of asset bubbles, there is probably something elselurking that isn't even on our radar yet that could emerge in2016.

3. Debbie Matz will continue in her position as NCUAChairman.

Matz' term on the NCUA board ended in April 2015. Many boardmembers serve past their term's expiration, but usually leavebefore or shortly after they hit the one-year mark. Former Board Member Gigi Hyland left the NCUA board in October2012 after her term expired in August 2011. After Carla Decker's failed bid, Vice Chairman Rick Metsger replacedher on the board in August 2013. His term expires in August 2017,presumably giving him just four years on the board instead of six.Former Chairman Mike Fryzel served approximately one year afterhis term expired, giving his replacement, Board Member MarkMcWatters, only a five-year term.

Filling vacant seats on the NCUA board isn't a priority for thepresident, which is why board members tend to stick around.Politically speaking, President Obama should be motivated toreplace Matz with another Democrat before the election, in case aRepublican wins. However, I doubt it's on his to-do list, whichwould leave a two-person board if Matz left. Metsger is no shrinking violet, but McWatters is more aggressive and has more connections on Capitol Hill. Two votes could mean a lot ofstalemates, but with Matz out of the picture, McWatters couldnegotiate with Metsger to repeal or at least weaken of some ofMatz's initiatives. The chairman has put in too much work to let that happen.