Credit unions' confidence in the economy rebounded in the finalmonths of 2013, according to results of Catalyst Corporate FederalCredit Union's Fourth Quarter 2013 Credit Union CEO Confidence Survey.

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Now in its 10th year, the survey indicated that the confidenceof CEOs polled rose a full three points over third quarter results,said the Plano, Texas-based corporate.

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The six-question survey, sent in January to 1,330 credit unionCEOs nationwide, enabled respondents to register their confidencelevels in six key areas:

  • Current financial condition of members
  • Current financial condition of the credit union
  • Anticipated financial condition of members in six months
  • Anticipated financial condition of the credit union in sixmonths
  • Anticipated loan demand at the credit union in six months
  • Anticipated share deposit growth at the credit union in sixmonths

All CEO assessments improved during fourth quarter, with theexception of expectations for share deposit growth, which remainedstatic. CEOs' optimism regarding their members' current and futurefinancial conditions improved over last quarter, rising 2.19 pointsand 3.38 points, respectively.

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Analysis of their own institution's current and future financialconditions also rose over the previous quarter's results by 1.99points and 4.65 points, respectively. In addition, CEOs' outlookfor loan demand jumped by more than six points, for the largestincrease in the fourth quarter survey.

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In 2004, when the survey was first introduced, U.S. GDP was 4%and unemployment was 5.5%, The CU CEO Confidence Index back thenregistered almost 20 points higher than it does today.

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Jeanne Walker, CEO of the $78 million Southern Federal CreditUnion in Houston, participated in the first survey as well as thecurrent one. In 2004, Walker expressed concerns regardingemployment levels and the ability of members to handle additionaldebt.

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In the current survey, Walker remained concerned aboutunemployment, but was happy her members, who are concentrated inthe oil industry, are able to find jobs plentiful now. She is stillconcerned about debt, but her members' higher income levels alsomean they spend more, which has been good for lending.

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“Our members' finances appear to be getting better, but we hadmore bankruptcies last year than usual,” Walker said. “Thankfully,charge-offs are low. Our members are loyal, and the majority dorepay.”

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Only two survey measurements reflected new highs for the year –loan demand and credit union future financial condition – while theremaining measurements were equal to or lower than the average forthe past four quarters.

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“Interest rates are not expected to be significantly higherduring 2014, loan demand should improve, but most likely will beconcentrated with the larger credit unions, and share growth shouldbe at the most, moderately better,” said Brian Turner, director and chief strategist for CatalystStrategic Solutions, part of Catalyst Corporate.

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