Call it a nasty byproduct of the coming rollout of EMV(aka chip-and-PIN) debit cards but the frightening news is thatmany ATM experts now predict a 2014 explosion in old-fashionedmagnetic stripe card fraud at ATMs as criminals enjoy a lastrobbing frenzy.

“The United States is now the weak point. We are the last majormarket to convert to EMV cards,” said Mike Urban, a financial crime expert with Brookfield, Wis.-basedFiserv. He ominously added that Canada had a “serious” skimmingproblem but now that it has largely converted to EMV cards, “thosecriminals are coming across the border.”

“The U.S. is one of the last bastions for criminals to skim. Ithink it will be a feeding frenzy,” said John Buzzard, a fraud expert at FICO.

“The future will have reduced ATM fraud,” predicted CyndieMartini, CEO of Member Access Pacific, which provides cardprocessing services to credit unions. She pointed to the coming ofEMV, as well as multiple biometric login technologies, as paths toa more secure tomorrow.

But that's the future and, as for now, Martini, too, is in thepessimistic camp: “Criminals will probably see this short window(before EMV implementation) as an opportunity to step up mag stripefraud – but it will be short lived.”

There may be some good news for credit unions amid the gloom –hold on for that – but the key issue today is that criminals, with20-plus years of experience perpetrating fraudwith mag stripe cards, are good at this.

Buzzard, for instance, estimated that a skilled criminal couldattach a skimmer to an ATM “in a minute or less.” High-quality skimmersfit snugly and are difficult for any but trained professionals todetect with a quick look.

It only stands to reason that that criminals will put theirskills to use before the rollout of EMV debit cards, which mostexperts see gathering steam in 2015 when liability shifts awaitnon-EMV compliant terminal operators per Visa and MasterCardedicts.

Note however that ATMs have their own later deadlines. Visa'sdeadline for ATMs is October 2017. With MasterCard the deadline is2016.

However, there is some wiggle in those timelines, noted DeanNolan, a vice president at payments solutions company Saylent.“Another point to consider is that fraud will not be reduced untilATM machines in the US stop accepting mag-stripe cards,” he said.“As it's likely that U.S. ATM acquirers will continue to acceptboth EMV and mag stripe cards until the majority of U.S.-issued ATMand debit cards are EMV-enabled, it's possible that an actualdecline in ATM fraud rates will not occur until sometimelater.”

That means criminals may in fact be entering a multi-yearthieving binge, said Nolan.

Just when you thought a sense of doom had become pervasive, knowthat Gary Walston, an executive vice president at Dolphin Debit, which supplies and manages ATMs for many creditunions, is in fact optimistic that credit unions, for the mostpart, will dodge this bullet.

He said, “We are not expecting a surge in theft. We definitelyare not in panic mode.”

Walston's reasoning: Credit union ATMs, at branches or insponsor organizations, generally are well protected. “Criminalswill seek out the easy targets, the ATMs in the back of retailers,”said Walston.

Many credit union ATMs, said Walston, are under 24/7 videosurveillance and at least some machines are equipped withstate-of-the-art anti-skimming controls. They also are routinelyphysically inspected by trained personnel. That makes them toughertargets than many ATMs found in more casual settings.

At Dolphin Debit, Walston acknowledged that “we are takingadditional precautions” to keep their ATMs safe. He was taciturnabout detailed specifics but did note, “We are increasing thenumber of physical inspections.”

Sift the predictions and two conclusions emerge: There willalmost certainly be a binge of ATM skimming fraud lasting for thenext several years but, quite probably, financial institutions thatkeep their ATMs monitored will escape the worst attacks.