I've been in the credit unionindustry for my entire career. In fact, I've been writing aboutcredit unions even before I had a career, as my first credit uniongig was a college internship.

I'd like to retire in this industry, too. However, as I thinkabout the future, I'm not confident that will happen.

Many of the favorable business and economic conditions thatallowed credit unions to grow are gone, and I don't think they'recoming back.

Forget regulatory burden and the low rate environment. Nevermind that employee loyalty is on the ropes and benefits are scalingback.

Two bigger problems stand out to me as credit union killers, andit doesn't seem like many in the industry are prepared to doanything about them.

The first is the continued breakdown of the banking barrier toentry. Long gone are the days when credit unions only had tocompete against big banks and community banks. Many readers realizethis, but plenty more don't.

Who needs a checking account when you can use a pre-paid debitcard instead? I can't remember the last time I wrote a check. Idon't think members will ever understand Reg D. And I think thebacklash among consumers and regulators against overdraft and NSFfees will continue to increase.

Pre-paid debit cards can carry high fees, but at least thosefees are known costs. Overdrafts are usually unexpected, and theycome at the worst possible time. Pre-paid debit cards areincreasingly tapped into direct deposit and promote access tofee-free ATMs. Why should consumers even bother with a checkingaccount?

Check cashers and payday lenders aren't going away either, eventhough they are under CFPB scrutiny. Here's why: between 2001 and2012, the ranks of the self-employed grew 14%, and are expected tofurther rise as technology and the increasing cost of benefitsmakes 1099 employees more appealing to a business' bottom line.

When self-employed people get paid, banks and credit unionstreat their checks like all others, putting them on hold andincreasing the likelihood of overdrafts. Check cashing fees areoften cheaper than NSFs. Products and services for small businessesoften don't fit their needs.

Consumers are also starting to wise up about past due loanbalances and the practice of settling those debts first beforegranting access to payroll or investment funds. I predict consumersand those who manage baby boomer estates will increasingly separatetheir lending and transactional accounts to keep food on the tablewhen money gets tight.

This leads me to the other big worry: the economy. The babyboomers, with their borrowing habits and good paychecks, werelow-hanging fruit … and they're not coming back.

We've seen report after report state that Gen Y doesn't want toown cars. And yet, credit unions continue to woo Gen Y while at thesame time marching forward with the same old bread-and-butter autoloan mentality. One-third of Gen Y still lives at home, and theprospects of them ever leaving aren't good. And yet, credit unionscontinue to market home loans to this group.

What credit unions need to stay relevant are new products andservices that meet today's economic and competitive realities, andbusiness development plans that recognize the traditional workplacewill continue to shrink.

If your credit union doesn't have plans to launch mobile bankingor a prepaid debit product this year, your leadership should stepaside and let someone else take a crack at preserving theinstitution. Same goes for those that depend upon NSF fee income tokeep the lights on, as well as those that don't understand howsocial media differs from direct mail advertising. And if yourbusiness model depends upon the economy turning around and loandemand returning to pre-recession numbers, forget it. You're toast.And these new must-haves will be behind the curve soon, if theyaren't already.

Regulators also have to get in the game if they want to savebanks and credit unions, and in turn, themselves. Many of thehurdles consumers dislike at traditional financial institutions areregulatory in nature. The NCUA and FDIC aren't exactly forwardthinking when it comes to approving new products and services.Granted, there is always risk involved in new ways of doing things,and financial regulators are tasked with minimizing risk.

But the risk of extinction is also real, and should be givenequal consideration.