Yet another citadel of knowledge has weighed in on whether thePatient Protection and Affordable Care Act will lead to higherhealth insurance premiums.

The Rand Corp. says rates generally will not be higher as aresult of the act's implementation, as now configured.

Moreover, Rand found that workers at firms employing fewer than100 workers are expected pay almost 6% less in premiums in 2016than without the health care reform law.

Nationally, the report said, average premiums for equal planswould cost $5,837 with Obamacare in effect and $6,192 without it — a $355 savings.Premiums at large companies weren't examined in the report.

While Rand has a reputation as an objective source ofinformation, it should be noted that the study was paid for by aunit of the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services and theoffice of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation inthe U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

In a release, Rand said: “The federal Affordable Care Act willlead to an increase in health insurance coverage and higherenrollment among people who purchase individual policies.” But its lead author,Christine Eibner, a senior economist at Rand, said, “Our analysisfound no widespread trend toward sharply higher prices in theindividual market.”

The study used a “micro-simulation model” to crunch insurancedata and to forecast a variety of insurance-related trends basedupon research derived from 10 states: Florida, Kansas,Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Texas, Minnesota, North Dakota, Ohio,Louisiana and New Mexico.

“In 2016, there will be no premium changes in the United Statesoverall and in five states (Florida, Kansas, Pennsylvania, SouthCarolina and Texas),” Rand predicted. “Three states (Minnesota,North Dakota and Ohio) could face premium increases of up to 43%,although those costs may be covered by federal tax credits.Louisiana and New Mexico may face premium declines.”

Rand said because large numbers of residents in states likeMinnesota, North Dakota and Ohio already have coverage, there willbe fewer people turning to the state exchanges for coverage. Thatwill tend to drive premium costs up in such states.

In states expecting a rush to the exchanges, rates will remainthe same or drop.

Other predictions from Rand's crystal-ball gazing include:

• By 2016, state residents who still have no coverage will rangefrom “a low of 5% in Minnesota to a high of 12% in Texas. Stateswith larger immigrant populations, such as Texas and Florida, willtend to have more uninsured people.”
• More people in the small-group coverage market will be covered.“There will be increases in small group coverage of up to 5percentage points in the United States overall,” Randestimated.
• Small-group premiums largely will be unchanged under thePPACA.
• Twice as many people will buy individual policies through theexchanges by 2016. Rand said “enrollment in the individual marketwill rise from 4.3% of the non-elderly to 9.5% of the nonelderly”by then.