In Sweden,already mobile banking is at a tipping point with several financialinstitutions reporting that, out of nowhere, usage has surgedbeyond the online channel.

Ditto for New Zealand where mobile access now outstrips online.

Word in the United Kingdom also is that mobile banking hasreached a tipping point.

What about in the United States? The nation's biggest creditunion, $54 billion Navy Federal in Vienna, Va., is moving fast tomake sure it is ready to stay on top of a rising mobile wave. In aninterview, assistant vice president for eChannels Meghan Goundsaid, “We will double our mobile downloads in just one year. Mobilenow has over half the traffic of online. It is growing by leaps andbounds.”

“Mobile is so convenient for our members,” said Gound, adding,“Yes, it's possible that mobile will grow to be bigger than ouronline channel.”

Towards that end, Navy Federal is working briskly to introducean iPad app – with much richer functionality than its iPhone app,to take advantage of the bigger screen and easier data input. “Thisapp” – due out in the fall – “will offer more transactionalcapabilities and also more educational elements,” said Gound, whosuggested that probably iPad users will log on for longer sessionsthan smartphone users.

Navy also is looking closely at expanding the range of functionsavailable to smartphone users. Presently they cannot add new payees– that's the norm in mobile banking – and they cannot fill outloans apps. Mobile users also cannot open a new account in thatchannel. But, said Gound, Navy is tracking all such advancedfunctions with an eye towards building them into the apps asneeded.

Other credit unions need to be looking at Navy Federal andasking how they can keep up.

A fact: Smartphone adoption here is at the fastest pace in the history of the adoption of any newtechnology, going back to the telephone (which took 39 years toreach the market share already achieved by smartphones in five, perdata crunched in MIT's Technology Review). Per thatarticle, “It took landline telephones about 45 years to getfrom 5% to 50% penetration among U.S. households, and mobile phonestook around seven years to reach a similar proportion of consumers.Smart phones have gone from 5% to 40% in about four years, despitea recession.”

The numbers get dazzling. Research from Nielsen, the ratingscompany, underlines this. During June 2013, 53 million Americansused banking apps and mobile websites on their smartphones, abouttwo out of five smartphone owners in the U.S.

Research fromGoogle also makes plain that for financial institutions inparticular, getting mobile right is a make or break, life or deathimperative. Growing numbers of consumers say they will switchfinancial institutions based solely on the quality (or lack) of themobile experience.

Looking forward, Fiserv vice president Steve Shaw said, “I agree, mobile will have more transactions thanonline. There are more use cases.”

The mobile banking showstopper of course is mobile remotedeposit capture which most surveys show already is more popularthan mobile bill pay. Mobile also allows a member to monitor –continuously if so desired – account activity and balances, usuallywith just a few taps on a glass screen.

A holdup at some credit unions, said Shaw, is that they ask, howcan we make money on mobile – but he said that's the wrongquestion. “You make money off this by looking at the money you aresaving. Transitioning consumers from higher cost channels intolower cost mobile channels. That's the power of mobile.”

Processing a deposit at a teller station costs upwards of $4 atmost financial institutions. It costs a few cents via MRDC and, said Shaw, across a range of activities, mobiledelivers powerful savings. As more credit unions get thisparsimonious math, Shaw suggested, we will see more pervasive andcreative efforts to shift member activities into more costefficient mobile channels.

This very probably will start happening very soon, at least atthe pioneering credit unions.

“Yes, I think mobile banking is at a tipping point here,” saidAubrey Meador, CEO of ARCA, which makes cash handling devices. He said his businessnonetheless is on an uptick – “our sales are up five times overlast year” – probably, he suggested, because financial institutionsare envisioning a new role for tellers that shifts them out ofactivities like cash handling and into sales and consultativeinteractions.

Does the explosion of mobile banking mean the death of thebranch as we have known it? Meador demurs. Branches will remainpart of financial services but, he said, “they will changesignificantly. They will be smaller. There will be more automation.There will be fewer staff.”

When? “As traffic in branch decreases, those changes willhappen,” said Meador, who acknowledged that right now amongfinancial services executives, there is much more talk about branchredesign than there are concrete steps.

But that day is coming. The sheer convenience of the bank in apocket – the mobile phone –makes a remapping of branches a matterof time. Short time.