If a renewed focus on strengthening Social Security, Medicareand Medicaid is not taken seriously, the middle class will not haveenough to retire.

That was one of the findings from a new AARP report, “The Effects of Rising Health Care Costs on MiddleClass Economic Security.

The research highlights trends that will threaten the health andfinancial security of people now in their 30s, 40s and 50s whenthey are ready to retire, according to the association.

Among them, proposals that would increase the eligibility agefor Medicare. AARP CEO A. Barry Rand said doing so would shiftscosts and does nothing to rein in escalating health carespending.

He suggested reforms that both improve the quality of care andcontain cost growth throughout the health care system, including inMedicare and Medicaid, through payment innovations, measures tolower drug costs, integrated care programs and continuing effortsto reduce waste and fraud.

“Unless we are able to reverse the trends that are driving thedecline of the middle class, many of today's middle class workerswill not have a middle class retirement,” Rand said.

The study, conducted for AARP by Harriet Komisar of GeorgetownUniversity, shows that over the past decade, the share of householdbudgets consumed by healthcare expenses increased by 51% – nearly double the growth inhousehold average income (30%) and more than three times the rateof growth for all other spending on products and services.

The study also revealed that college graduates 45 to 54 yearsold will struggle to regain losses from the recession, and areprojected to have 19% less income at age 70 than current retireeswith a college education.

Social Security will account for 51% of per capita householdincome for future middle-income retirees, 69 % for low-incomeworkers and 35% for high-income workers, according to thefindings.

Rand recently spoke to the National Press Club to discussfindings from AARP Public Policy Institute's newly released “MiddleClass Security Project,” which studies how middle class workingAmericans struggle and often fail to build and maintain retirement security.

The future of Social Security is a separate process with a goalof strengthening it to help people achieve a secure retirement, notto reduce the budget deficit, Rand suggested.

“AARP is ready to have that discussion right now,” Randsaid.