I know what I’m talking about at least half the time: my2011 predictions were hit and miss. Like any other industryobserver, they’re all educated guesses, and we’re even asked tospeak about what we foresee. As the late Red Skelton is oftencredited with saying, “Give the people what they want.”

The most far-reaching news story for 2011 was Bank Transfer Dayand the public awareness opportunity it afforded credit unions. Noone could have seen that coming. Once Credit Union Timesgot wind of it, we recognized the impact it could have and coveredit like snow on Christmas.

The results of Bank Transfer Day were tremendous.Approximately 210,000 members joining in one month isincredible relative to credit unions’ experience in recent years.September and October membership growth was 75% of all of 2010.

The CUs that recognized this opportunity were rewarded withincreased membership and loans. So my prediction for 2012 is thatthe CUs that see the bigger picture and take advantage willoptimize the public awareness and continue to experience greatermembership growth that will power them through the overall lull inlending.

Still other credit unions don’t have the resources, thewillpower or the inclination to take advantage of theseopportunities as they come along. When that happens, there becomesan even greater gap between the haves and the have-nots.

Small credit unions that provide specialized and worthwhileproducts that meet the needs of a particular niche will do verywell. In discussing a variety of issues with the CEO of a $650million credit union, we came upon mergers. His credit union wasn’tactively pursuing them, but he had taken in a few. At the sametime, the CEO admitted the large credit union couldn’t possiblyserve the membership of separate small credit union in the area aswell as that credit union did.

In 2012, we’ll see a lot more consolidation of small creditunions. At the end of November, $1.7 billion Landmark Credit Unionannounced its sixth merger of the year, $26 million Horizon CU, andthe $38 million Winthrop FCU merged with Webster First FCU, itsthird and pushing Webster First over $600 million in assets.

CUs under $100 million in assets will see the sharpest declinein their ranks. There will also be extraordinary growth in thenumber of CUs over $500 million in assets and the size of thoseover $500 million in assets. As of third-quarter 2011, NCUA listed386 credit unions in that peer group. Next year that number shouldpush up over 415 CUs.

Last year, I predicted an uptick in mergers. The decline in thenumber of credit unions between 2009 and 2010 was 3.0%, whilethe latest data from CUNA show a 3.2% decline from October 2010 through October 2011). With these last minute mergersgetting reported, that percentage will increase further by yearend.

Multiple compounding pressures will accelerate consolidation in2012. As of the end of October 2011 there were 7,409 credit unions.I would not be surprised to see that dip down below 7,100.

I had predicted that assets of troubled CUs would decrease in2011, which they did from 5.04% of insured shares to 3.58%,according to the NCUA’s data. However, the number of CAMEL 4 and 5credit unions was up, indicating more problems at smaller creditunions.

Additionally, some mergers that have been unique in 2011, suchas the transcontinental ones by Chartway FCU, and across statelines, like Security Service FCU, will become more common.Scenarios where credit unions purchase the assets of ailing thriftsas in the $1.3 billion United FCU’s purchase of Griffith Bank’sassets will also raise fewer eyebrows in 2012. These events won’topen the floodgates but a handful of each will occur in 2012.

Crisis and regulation have forced the consolidation of thecorporate credit union system. I had predicted we’d be down to sixcorporate credit unions by now. We’re down to 16 with announcementscoming on two mergers, including WesBridge, as we headed intodeadline last week, and we were awaiting another regarding U.S.Central’s resolution at deadline. I’ll back down on my predictionfor 2012, but given the need for volume and other economicpressures, you can bet consolidation will continue. We could see 10corporates by yearend 2012.

These consolidations have also caused some vendors to rethinktheir businesses. I predict one large technology vendor will at thevery least quit serving CUs, if not merge or liquidate away during2012.

Regarding assisted mergers and liquidations, the NCUA 2010annual report explained that NCUA closed 28 credit unions in 2010.NCUA resolved these failures via 10 assisted mergers, fiveliquidations and 13 purchase and assumptions. The NCUA’s Decemberboard insurance report said there were only 14 failures as of Nov.30, 2011, including one assisted merger and 13 liquidations ofwhich eight were purchased and assumed by other credit unions. Thetotal cost to the insurance fund was just $47 million.

Also relating to the NCUA, I had predicted another increase inthe NCUA’s budget but “not nearly as much” as the previous 12%.This year’s increase turned out to be 5%, so that one was on themoney.

But I was wrong about Geoff Bacino returning to the board in2011. But the latest nominee, Carla Decker, will not make it in2011 either.