If John Worth worked at the United Nations, he might behelping delegates understand a language that is quite differentfrom their native tongues.

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Instead, he spends his days translating something equallyimpenetrable to most people, economic data.

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Worth, who joined the NCUA as chief economist in September 2010, sees his role as helpingexaminers and rule writers understand how economic trends impactthe operation of credit unions and the behavior of consumers.

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“Part of what I do is to provide tools to examiners so theyunderstand what is happening in the economy and its impact on theperformance of credit unions. Because credit unions are oftenconcentrated in a specific area and tied to an industry, this makesthem susceptible to certain trends in a way that other financialinstitutions aren’t,” he said in an interview with Credit UnionTimes.

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The federal government isn’t lacking for people who analyze theeconomy. It employs about 4,100 economists, according to the LaborDepartment. The Treasury Department has 473 and the FDIC has61.

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Worth said his three-member office (which will grow to its fullystaffed level of five next year) provides data analyses that aren’tproduced elsewhere.

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“When there are credit unions in an area with risingunemployment and falling home prices, we point out risks to theirbalance sheet. This helps examiners work to see to it that creditunion managers understand certain safeguards they need to take,” hesaid.

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His office provides a weekly economic report to all agencypersonnel. The analysis is based both on data compiled by theagency and information from other government and private sources.The agency has allocated $1.1 million for the office out ofagency’s $236.8 million for next year.

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The position had been vacant since the 1990s, when NCUA ChairmanDebbie Matz decided to fill it last year in light of the economiccrisis.

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Former NCUA Chairman Dennis Dollar said when he ran the agency,“we got our economic data primarily from the Fed and thereforehaving our own economist on board at NCUA was not a budgetpriority.” The NCUA board included it in the agency’s budget forhis last year as chairman, 2004, but the post wasn’t filled untillast year.

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Worth said another key part of his job is to provide economicanalyses to agency employees during the rulemaking process. Hedeclined to give a specific example in which his office influencedthe content of a final rule, saying that “the decision-makingprocess is proprietary.” However, when pressed he did say that heoften has the chance to point out potential economic implicationsof a policy that hadn’t occurred to others.

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CUNA Chief Economist Bill Hampel said, “While I don’t knowfor certain, I have a strong suspicion that [Worth] had aninfluence on the agency’s legacy asset plans for the corporates,and his input made it stronger.”

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NAFCU Chief Economist Tun Wai said having a chief economist “canonly help the agency have more data to work with to do a better jobof regulating credit unions.”

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Before joining the NCUA, Worth was manager for policy researchat the Federal Housing Finance Agency and prior to that was aneconomist at the Treasury Department for almost 10 years. He headedthe department’s Office of Macroeconomic Analysis and was actingdeputy assistant secretary for microeconomics.

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Worth is 42 and grew up in New Jersey. He earned his doctoratefrom the University of Southern California and wrote hisdissertation on the relationship between work and crime amongjuveniles.

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“It was a fascinating subject, and I enjoyed doing it. But Ijoined the Treasury Department and never looked at it again,” hequipped.

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Worth said the biggest challenge he faces is helping the agencynavigate the uncertain economic conditions that are likely toprevail for some time.

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He expects the unemployment situation will improve slightly nextyear, but there will be uncertainty about interest rates for thenear future. In addition, consumer uncertainty will continue toresult in diminished demand for big-ticket items, which will reducethe demand for loans at credit unions. 

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