The Mortgage Bankers Association's latest monthly forecast made minor brushstrokes in its picture of the second half, deepening the shadows in the summer and heightening the light in the fall.
Blurred together: Not much really changed in the numbers in the second half in the MBA's June 22 forecast compared with its May 15 forecast, and no changes on mortgage originations were made outside of those two quarters.
The MBA revised purchase originations upward by 2% for the second half, while lowering refinances by 3%. Because purchases are about twice as big as refis, the net effect was a bare 0.5% upward revision for total mortgages.
The MBA said it now expects $735 billion in purchase mortgage originations in the second half, up 2.5% from a year earlier, while refinances are expected to fall 26% to $321 billion. Total mortgages are expected to fall 8.3% in the second half.
On the economy, the MBA's June 22 forecast revised GDP growth for the first quarter down by 0.4 points to 1.6%, reflecting the same downward revision in the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis' second estimate released May 28. The BEA's third estimate will be released Thursday.
Meanwhile, the MBA revised upwards its estimates for economic growth for the second and third quarters, which left its previous estimate of 1.8% GDP growth for the year intact in its June 22 estimate.
The MBA lowered its expectations slightly for new home sales. It said it now expects them to rise 1.5% to 689,000 this year, and rise 8.6% to 748,000 in 2027.
It continued to expect existing home sales will rise 3.3% to 4.2 million this year and rise 6.5% to 4.5 million in 2027.
The MBA also continued to expect the rate for 30-year fixed mortgages to end the year at 6.5%.
Contact Jim DuPlessis at Jim.DuPlessis@arc-network.com.
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